The dog days of January in the NBA regular season are stirring up plenty of blowouts as of late, and that hurts the player props market with minutes getting cut and box scores coming up just short. Perhaps that's just a me problem, but trends are trends and logic should more often than not support bets, but when the minutes aren't there, what can you do?
To right the ship, here are three expert player prop picks for you to consider, including three-time league Most Valuable Player Nikola Jokic potentially extending his triple-double streak (+120) against the Sacramento Kings on Thursday, January 23, 2025.
Nikola Jokic To Record A Triple-Double vs. Kings (+120)
Preview: Sacramento Kings vs. Denver Nuggets, 9 p.m. ET
Only Denver Nuggets teammate Russell Westbrook and the great Oscar Robertson can ever claim to have averaged a triple-double for an entire season, but Jokic could be next in line to achieve the miraculous feat as he's currently just 0.1 assists away from reaching that mark for the time being with 30.1 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 9.9 assists across 37 assists.
He's in the midst of a stretch of games in which he's achieved a triple-double four-straight times and in five of his last six appearances. Jokic also registered a triple-double earlier in the season on Dec. 16 versus Sacramento, as well, ending with 20 points, 14 boards, and 13 dimes in a narrow one-point road victory.
Perhaps the Kings bring something special out of the big man, as he's had three triple-doubles against them in their past five meetings. Jokic is capable of producing monster lines on any given night, and Thursday presents an ample opportunity for him to keep the momentum going.
Scottie Barnes OVER 6.5 Assists vs. Hawks (-104)
Preview: Toronto Raptors vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET
A hip injury to point guard Immanuel Quickley has thrust backup Davion Mitchell into the starting lineup, and while Mitchell is averaging five assists over his last four starts, he's not the playmaker the Toronto Raptors necessarily need to uplift the 23rd-ranked offense in basketball.
Enter Scottie Barnes, who needs seven assists on Thursday against the visiting Atlanta Hawks to achieve an OVER, which would mark his fourth game in a row in doing so for this number. Barnes is averaging nine assists over his last three appearances, and actually ranks 13th overall amongst all players in potential assists at 12.8 per contest.
Atlanta allows the most assists to opposing power forwards at 5.33. Barnes had a rough showing against them on Dec. 29 by notching five assists with a staggering eight turnovers, but he did go OVER 6.5 assists in three out of four matchups during the 2023-24 campaign.
Kel'el Ware OVER 24.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Bucks (-111)
Preview: Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 p.m. ET
As long as Kel'el Ware's role remains strong in Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra's rotation, even against a formidable Milwaukee Bucks interior defense, the likelihood of this combination points and rebounds prop connecting increases with teammate Jimmy Butler suspended once again.
The rookie center is coming off his strongest showing of the season with a 20-point, 15-point rebound in his debut start in a loss to the Portland Trail Blazers. It served as the third time Ware has exceeded the 30-minute mark, and when he does, the 20-year-old big man averages 21.3 points and 13 rebounds.
It would be silly on the Heat's part to not continue feeding Ware more and more responsibility when he's clearly thriving under such circumstances. Keep in mind that two of his aforementioned three outburst were against the same team in Portland, and Milwaukee is another beast entirely.
