Most, if not all NBA player prop wagers can be justified in some capacity, but finding those value plays with a strong probability of actually connecting is what separates the wins and losses and builds units. The 10-game schedule on Wednesday night is full of them, with three in particular sticking out.
Here's an in-depth look at the three player prop expert picks in question, including a PRA bet for Houston Rockets sophomore Amen Thompson against the Denver Nuggets on January 15, 2025.
Amen Thompson OVER 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists vs. Nuggets (-104)
Preview: Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets, 9 p.m. ET
With injuries to Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason, the Rockets' frontcourt has needed Thompson to play a healthy chunk of minutes by moving him into the starting lineup out of necessity. In his last four games, the 21-year-old forward has suited up for a team-high 39.6 minutes with three appearances exceeding 40 in total. With that level of playing time, which ranks fourth amongst all players across the Association, his props become that much more enticing.
Thompson has contributed 18 points on 56.3 percent shooting, 12.8 rebounds, four assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.5 blocks during that span. His PRA (points + rebounds + assists) is set at 29.5 in the Mile High City, and he's reached an OVER in three of those outings.
Denver ranks 23rd in opponent's points per game at home (115.6) and dead last in opponent's assists (29.6), which helps Thompson's cause even more as long as he avoids foul trouble.
Josh Hart To Record A Double-Double vs. 76ers (+110)
Preview: New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 7 p.m. ET
Over Josh Hart's last 12 games, the 6-foot-4 guard has recorded 11 double-doubles in points and rebounds and three triple-doubles including assists, averaging 15.2 points, 12.6 boards, and 5.7 dimes during that run. The flexibility of having either rebounds or assists here for Hart to achieve another double-double, at least, is that path to success, rather than strictly betting on one statistic or the other.
Hart did achieve a triple-double earlier in the season against the Philadelphia 76ers, finishing with a line of 14 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists in 37 minutes as the New York Knicks won on the road by 12 points on Nov. 12. Head coach Tom Thibodeau continues to run his starters into the ground regardless of what the scoreboard looks like, so Hart's playing time will be heavy regardless if New York builds a sizeable lead against an injured Sixers roster.
Harrison Barnes OVER 12.5 Points vs. Grizzlies (-102)
Preview: Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8 p.m. ET
Having Harrison Barnes' scoring prop at just 12.5 points against a Memphis Grizzlies defense which is allowing 117.2 points over their last seven games (25th) should lead several more eyes in its direction.
Barnes sits third on the San Antonio Spurs in scoring during that aforementioned stretch, averaging 15.1 points while converting 53.7 percent from the field and a scorching 43.8 percent from 3-point range. This run includes four OVERs, which means he did reach an UNDER three times to be fair.
Now he did go UNDER versus Memphis in all three games during the 2023-24 season, as well, but at -102 on Wednesday, there's enough reason here to think an OVER is in the cards.
