During an episode of "The Huddle" for Odds Shark on Oct. 22, 2024, former Milwaukee Bucks big man John Henson and I ran down our predictions for the 2024-25 NBA season concerning awards winners and which teams would represent the Eastern and Western Conferences in the Finals.
At the unofficial halfway point of the campaign, let's revisit those picks and see which ones were spot on and which appear to be falling well short of the mark.
Opening 2024-25 NBA Awards Predictions
NBA Most Valuable Player
| Voter | Pick | Team | Opening Odds | Current Odds (Jan. 21) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Walder | Luka Doncic | Dallas Mavericks | +500 | N/A |
| John Henson | Luka Doncic | Dallas Mavericks | +500 | N/A |
Outlook: Whoops. Doncic is now mathematically eliminated from all end-of-season award considerations as he'll fail to meet the 65-game requirement for eligibility due to injury. Even when healthy, he's been well behind the likes of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic in these conversations, so a win was unlikely to manifest anyway.
NBA Rookie of the Year
| Voter | Pick | Team | Opening Odds | Current Odds (Jan. 21) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Walder | Zach Edey | Memphis Grizzlies | +2500 | +800 |
| John Henson | Reed Sheppard | Houston Rockets | +1100 | N/A |
Outlook: Zach Edey has been hovering around the top of the leaderboard in betting odds for the Wilt Chamberlain trophy for the better part of the season, as he's maintained a sizeable role on a Memphis Grizzlies team that's holding down the No. 3 seed in the West. His chances to win remain strong, as no other first-year player has yet to emerge from the pack.
Reed Sheppard, however, was a risky play from the start as the Houston Rockets had postseason aspirations, and garnering playing time ahead of the three-man combination of Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, and Dillon Brooks was always going to prove difficult.
NBA Coach Of The Year
| Voter | Pick | Team | Opening Odds | Current Odds (Jan. 21) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Walder | Taylor Jenkins | Memphis Grizzlies | +1400 | +2000 |
| John Henson | Mike Budenholzer | Phoenix Suns | +2500 | +30000 |
Outlook: If the season were to end today, Memphis would finish with more wins than it achieved all of last season when the injury bug ran roughshod through its roster. That, in and of itself, should make Taylor Jenkins a prime contender for Coach of the Year, although four other candidates have shorter odds with Kenny Atkinson far and away the favorite at minus money.
The Phoenix Suns are barely holding on to the final spot in the play-in tournament, so barring a miraculous run over the final few months to secure home-court advantage in the opening round of the playoffs, Mike Budenholzer's chances here are essentially zero.
NBA Defensive Player Of The Year
| Voter | Pick | Team | Opening Odds | Current Odds (Jan. 21) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Walder | Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | -225 | -600 |
| John Henson | Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | -225 | -600 |
Outlook: Victor Wembanyama was a no-brainer pick and that will probably ring true for many years to come. The only chance anyone really had is if the 7-foot-4 big man had to miss any length of time due to injury, and while that could still ring true (*knocks on wood*), Defensive Player of the Year is his to lose. The second-best odds are 12-to-1 for Evan Mobley, so even oddsmakers are counting down the days until Wembanyama is crowned.
NBA Sixth Man Of The Year
| Voter | Pick | Team | Opening Odds | Current Odds (Jan. 21) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Walder | Donte DiVincenzo | Minnesota Timberwolves | +1800 | N/A |
| John Henson | Malik Monk | Sacramento Kings | +450 | N/A |
Outlook: The Donte DiVincenzo pick looked good in theory, but as is the case for the Minnesota Timberwolves as a unit, the initial returns from the move that sent Karl-Anthony Towns to the Big Apple are incredibly disappointing on several fronts. DiVincenzo had just recently been thrust into the starting lineup to turn his season around, and the change was looking fruitful up until he went down with a sprained toe.
Malik Monk has actually started 21 of his 34 appearances for the Sacramento Kings, which is an obvious disqualifying trait for him to be the best overall bench player. Again, he was the runner-up for the award last year, so the pick was sound before Sacramento chose to make him a starter.
NBA Most Improved Player
| Voter | Pick | Team | Opening Odds | Current Odds (Jan. 21) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Walder | Jalen Johnson | Atlanta Hawks | +10000 | +1600 |
| John Henson | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Outlook: John's logic at the time for not making a Most Improved Player pick was that watching preseason basketball wasn't enough grounds to make a proper, rational selection without it feeling like a donation to sportsbooks, which is fair.
However, my Jalen Johnson pick still has merit to this day, as the Atlanta Hawks wing has the fifth-shortest odds as of writing. Numbers, the success of the team, and roles have a massive impact on why a certain player should prevail here, and Johnson always had the backing in Atlanta to keep himself a favorite for the long haul.
NBA Eastern Conference Champion
Chris Walder: New York Knicks (current record: 28-16)
John Henson: Boston Celtics (current record: 30-13)
NBA Western Conference Champion
Chris Walder: Minnesota Timberwolves (current record: 22-21)
John Henson: Oklahoma City Thunder (current record: 35-7)
Outlook: As of Jan. 21, 2025, a Knicks-Timberwolves Finals matchup has a +10000 chance of occurring, while the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder have the shortest odds of getting out of their conferences at +105 and +115, respectively.
The most logical answer often turns out to be the correct one, and rolling with what was once and likely still is considered to be the two best teams in the Association to fight over the Larry O'Brien trophy was wise on John's part. Taking New York and Minnesota was fun at the time knowing the impact of the KAT trade and having just seen the Liberty and Lynx compete in the WNBA Finals not long before.
