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Rockets-Warriors Game 4 Pick And Betting Analysis

It’s games like Rockets-Warriors Game 4 that oddsmakers really don’t like. 

It’s tough to predict where the action is going to go with a team coming off its most humiliating playoff loss in franchise history like Houston is. 

These are also the kinds of games bettors don’t like. It’s tough to predict how that team will perform coming off a 41-point loss and we wonder whether the coach’s adjustments will work. 

There’s a good chance someone is going to end up looking silly on either side of the betting counter. But you just have to accept that as a bettor and handicap the game as best you can and trust what you see.

Accept the punishment if you’re wrong and pat yourself on the back if you’re right. Either way – move on quickly.

Here’s how I think this game will go… 

(I’m 12-5 against the spread in my last 17 NBA games and now 24-21 ATS overall in the playoffs.)

Rockets at Warriors -8.5, 224

Houston’s game plan is to run isolation plays and in Game 1 they ran 45 of ’em, the most by any team in any game in the last five seasons. It didn’t work in Game 1 or in Game 3, which was the least efficient offensive game for Houston of the season. 

Mike D’Antoni said the Rockets went too deep into the shot clock looking for a mismatch for Harden or Chris Paul – Harden and Paul were 1 and 2 in the NBA this season in points per iso play (1.22 and 1.10) – and says that’s something they have to correct. 

So the question becomes, can Houston adjust? I think they can. D’Antoni has shown it in the playoffs before when coaching the Suns. I’m expecting a faster pace and I see some OVER value here in the lowest total of the series. 

Houston also knows the importance of the three-pointer so we can expect them to continue to heave them up. The Rockets have averaged 37 attempts per game in this series. 

A few betting trends to consider: 

  • Five of the last six Warriors games have gone UNDER.
  • Warriors have won 16 straight home playoff games but are just 8-8 ATS in those. 
  • Warriors have posted a net rating of 17.9 points per 100 possessions at home in the playoffs but only a net rating of 1.8 on the road. 
  • There has been only one Western Conference playoff game this month decided by fewer than eight points. There hasn’t been a single playoff game in either conference decided by single digits since May 9 (Sixers-Celtics) heading into Tuesday night’s action.

Pick: OVER 224 

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