The Sportsbook of Game 5 typically wins a playoff series in the NBA postseason, which makes the stakes for tonight’s game between the San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets that much more important. The teams have split their home games but it’s the Nuggets who have looked to be the aggressor recently and will get to play this pivotal game at the Pepsi Center.
The Nuggets opened as 5.5-point favorites with a total of 211.
STANDOUT STATS
- Coming into this series, the Spurs were the best three-point shooting team in the NBA (39.2 percent) and second-best shooting team from the field (47.8 percent). What’s most surprising about those numbers is they ranked 17th in total shot attempts per game, which means that the Spurs are taking efficient shots in Gregg Popovich’s system. Through four games of this series, they ranked last out of 16 playoff teams in three-point attempts per game (17) while hitting 35.3 percent of those shots (ranked ninth) but are fifth-best in field-goal percentage (47.5).
- The Nuggets were one of the best home teams in the NBA this season at 34-7 SU and 25-16 ATS and beat the Spurs twice at the Pepsi Center during the regular season. In those games, the Nuggets held a commanding double-digit lead at halftime and scored 61 first-half points each time. They dropped Game 1 vs the Spurs because they shot so poorly from behind the arc (6-for-24, 21.4 percent) but were able to come back in Game 2 due to a strong fourth quarter from Jamal Murray.
- Although the Nuggets split their two games at home and in San Antonio in the series, their offense has looked remarkably better since Game 1. They were held to 96 points and only 21.4 percent from behind the arc in the opener and have topped 108 points in each game since while shooting over 40 percent from the perimeter. Nikola Jokic may be the biggest reason for the offensive transition as the center has scored 20 or more points in the last three games while averaging nine assists.
- The Spurs were not a great road team during the regular season as they ranked 20th in scoring defense (114 points per game) and allowed opponents to shoot 47.6 percent from the floor (ranked 24th). They also gave up the sixth-most three-pointers in those outings. The Spurs regressed back to these stats in Game 2 when they allowed the Nuggets to shoot 48 percent from the floor and were outscored 39-23 in the fourth quarter.
- Although the UNDER was the hot play coming into each game of this series, OVER bettors have been cashing in mostly in this series. The OVER has hit in three of four games with an average combined score of 215. Dating back to the regular season, the OVER has hit in six of the Nuggets’ last eight games.
My Best Bet for Spurs vs Nuggets
OVER 211
I desperately wanted to take the Spurs moneyline for this one as I picked San Antonio to advance in this series but I think the OVER will be the best play. The Nuggets have figured out their offense and getting Nikola Jokic to look for his shot while also being a facilitator has opened it up for Denver.
The Nuggets have shot the lights out from behind the arc in Games 2 through 4 and I see them having another decent scoring game from their backcourt rotation of Jamal Murray, Will Barton, Gary Harris and Monte Morris. I also expect DeMar DeRozan to have a big game after getting tossed in Game 4, so the OVER feels like the path of least resistance compared to the spread hovering around 5.5.
