NBA Playoffs 2024: Thunder vs. Mavericks Second Round Preview, Betting Odds

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks will square off in the second round of the 2024 NBA playoffs after each side failed to qualify for the postseason a year ago. 

The No. 1-seeded Thunder swept the Zion Williamson-less New Orleans Pelicans to reach this point, while Dallas emerged from a competitive six-game matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Here's a look at everything you need to know for this best-of-seven series, from the recent history between the two teams to all key betting odds.

2024 NBA Playoff Previews: Second Round

(Related Link) 2024 NBA Playoff Series Prices

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Hub

Oklahoma City Thunder Vs. Dallas Mavericks Schedule

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Series Winner Odds

Odds as of May 4

This is the furthest the Thunder have advanced in the playoffs since 2016 when they reached the conference finals before falling in six games to the Golden State Warriors. 

Dallas opened against the Clippers as the favorites at -142 despite being the lower seed, and is currently the only team seeded No. 5 through No. 8 to advance to the conference semifinals. 

Oklahoma City Thunder Vs. Dallas Mavericks Total Games Odds

Odds as of May 4

It's a testament to the competitive balance in the Western Conference that the consistent trend throughout the playoffs has been the worst odds being for a short series. Oddsmakers like the Thunder and Mavericks to go at least six games at +190, followed by a full seven-game slate at +220.

Oklahoma City has competed in four Game 7s since the franchise moved from Seattle.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Series Prediction Odds

Odds as of May 4

These odds fall in line with what we're seeing in the odds for total games played, with both the Thunder or Mavericks sweeping their way to victory coming in at 11 to 1. There's slightly more confidence in Dallas closing things out in six games as opposed to Oklahoma City, though, who has its best odds coming via a win in Game 7 on its home floor.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks 2023-24 Season Series (3-1 Thunder)

Oklahoma City's win on April 14 was marred by Dallas sitting all of its core players for rest, so take that 49-point victory with a grain of salt. 

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks 2023-24 Spread History

The Mavericks were 14-16 against the spread in 2023-24 when entering as an underdog, but two of those wins ATS did come against the Thunder. In fact, they're one of only two teams (Minnesota Timberwolves) they managed to cover on multiple occasions against under those circumstances. 

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks 2023-24 OVER/UNDER History

The Thunder have hit the OVER 54.2 percent of the time with a 45-38-3 mark, which includes the series against the Pelicans that actually went UNDER in three out of the four games. Dallas, on the other hand, only goes OVER 44.8 percent of the time at 39-48-1.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Top Scorer Odds

Oklahoma City Thunder Player To Watch: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

One of the finalists for league Most Valuable Player this season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's production against Dallas would be commendable for most players, but considering how high the bar is that he's set for himself, a deeper look suggests some issues. His 22 points per game were actually his second-lowest output against any one team behind only the Milwaukee Bucks at 17.5

That number is compounded, of course, by the 15 points he contributed in just 15 minutes on April 14 in what was essentially a meaningless game. However, Gilgeous-Alexander did only have 17 points on 6-of-13 shooting in 38 minutes of action in the Mavericks' six-point win on Dec. 2. 

Dallas Mavericks Player To Watch: Derrick Jones Jr.

The Thunder's core are young, long, and athletic, meaning Derrick Jones Jr. should see plenty of run to combat that size and athleticism defensively on the wing against the likes of Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. Jones Jr was a standout shooting the rock during the regular season against Oklahoma City, and even fell one point short of his career high with 24 points on Dec. 12.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds To Win Western Conference

Odds as of May 4

It's literally a coin flip between the two sides as far as who gets out of the West, although the reigning champion Denver Nuggets still hold a noticeable lead in these odds at +120.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds To Win NBA Championship

Odds as of May 4

The same rings true here in the odds for which team will prevail and hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy in June. Oklahoma City and Dallas currently sit third and fourth in these odds, respectively, behind the Nuggets and leading Boston Celtics.

Expert Prediction: Dallas Mavericks (+100), Mavericks Win Series 4-2 (+350)

The Mavericks aren't your prototypical fifth seed, since the West was so loaded from top to bottom that their overall record SU of 50-32 would have tied them for second in the East. 

A cause for concern is Doncic's shooting, as he only connected on 40.5 percent of his shots in six games against the Clippers and 23.9 percent from 3-point range, although his production was still more than enough across the board to get Dallas out of the series. It remains to be seen how much of that is connected to any lingering injuries, and if a fresh matchup and new lease on life will get him out of his funk. 

Oklahoma City's youth is both a blessing and a curse, as they have limited expectations despite being a No. 1 seed as experts know they're built for sustained success and don't necessarily have to win it all this year. Their inexperience may come into play against a more proven and battle-tested Dallas roster.

It was gifted a Pelicans squad missing its best player in the opening round, but the Mavericks are far deeper and top heavy with the one-two punch of Doncic and Kyrie Irving and more of a defensive presence in the low post following midseason acquisitions.