Our NBA experts Christopher Walder, Nick Holz, and David Caraviello are here throughout the playoffs offering up their spread, moneyline, OVER/UNDER, and player prop picks for all of the action.
The Dallas Mavericks can advance to the Western Conference finals for the second time in three years if they can defeat the No. 1-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 6 of their best-of-seven series on Saturday night.
Let's take a closer look at all expert picks for this potential closeout matchup on Saturday night.
(Related Link) 2024 NBA Playoff Series Prices
NBA Expert Picks Results: Second Round
Expert | Record | Units |
---|---|---|
Nick Holz | 9-10 | -1.08 |
David Caraviello | 8-11 | -4.73 |
Christopher Walder | 8-16-1 | -7.22 |
Jump To Picks
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 6 Preview & Picks
Matchup Page: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8 p.m. ET
Same-Game Parlay: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 6
Team | Spread | Money | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Oklahoma City Thunder | +3.5 (-105) | +145 | O 209.5 (-105) |
Dallas Mavericks | -3.5 (-115) | -175 | U 209.5 (-115) |
Christopher Walder's Pick: Dallas Mavericks ATS -3.5 (-115)
The Mavericks have successfully covered the spread in each game they've won this series, two of which came on the road at the Paycom Center as underdogs of at least 4.5 points. The difference here is they're back at home and favored by their highest margin versus the Thunder thus far, but with the moneyline odds not providing tremendous value, the spread is the correct play here to maximize potential returns.
Dallas is just 9-12 all-time SU in Game 6's of a playoff series, but have won their last three, two at home, including in the opening round this year against the Los Angeles Clippers to send them packing. They're loaded with experience in these types of situations, while the Thunder possess the youngest roster in the postseason and far less know-it-all of how to get the job done in these high-pressure encounters.
Games 3 and 4 were determined by exactly four points each, but the other three scores were separated by nine or more. Oklahoma City should keep this close, but the Mavericks' defense has been superb as of late by forcing the Thunder into being a jump-shooting team. Dallas can absolutely win on the road in a Game 7, but the opportunity to avoid a winner-take-all is far too important to pass on.
David Caraviello's Pick: Dallas Mavericks ATS -3.5 (-115)
This has proven a maddening and unpredictable series for sports bettors, who’ve watched home teams win just twice, and seen underdogs win outright in three of the past four games. Dallas showed some defensive pluck in its Game 5 victory, holding the Thunder to just 25% shooting from the 3-point arc, and Luka Doncic played through knee and ankle injuries to score 31 points.
We’re going with the Mavericks at home on Saturday with a chance to close it out, but would anyone be surprised if we’re back in OKC for a Game 7?
Christopher Walder's Pick: UNDER 209.5 Points (-115)
The total prop has reached the UNDER in each of the last three games, even with the number dropping from 217 in Game 3 to 215.5 in Game 4 and then 213.5 for Game 5. The new total for Saturday's contest is 209.5, but even so, the final score would have still reached the UNDER in all of those aforementioned games.
Defense is the name of the game in this series, and the likes of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have been held in check for the most part throughout, keeping the end tallies as low as they've been. In an elimination game, jitters may occur for both rosters resulting in a slow start both from the opening tip and even returning from the halftime break.
Of the eight teams that qualified for the conference semifinals, the Mavericks and Thunder rank seventh and eighth in shooting efficiency from the field.