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Heat Thunder NBA Finals Pick

The Miami Heat are the sportsbook favorites on the NBA lines for Tuesday night as they play host to the Oklahoma City Thunder holding a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven NBA Finals.


LeBron James tossed in 29 points on Sunday night as the Heat beat the Thunder 91-85 to take the 2-1 series lead. Dwyane Wade added 25 points for Miami in that UNDER result for totals bettors.

Kevin Durant got into foul trouble in the third quarter and never found his rhythm again. He vows to be smarter and play all 48 minutes, which would be bad news for Miami backers.

Miami will face the 47-19 Thunder, who own a 35-31 ATS mark on the season. In totals betting, the Heat are 25-39-2 favoring the UNDER so far this season while the Thunder are 31-35 favoring the OVER.

View Oklahoma City vs Miami Odds and Stats.

Betting Line:
On the opening line for this matchup, the Heat sat as 3.5-point favorites at TopBet. The total had been pegged by the oddsmakers at 192 at 5Dimes.

Power Rankings / Prediction:
The Power Rankings at Odds Shark have the No. 2-rated Thunder taking on the No. 5-rated Heat in this contest. Computer models indicate a possible 106-104 win for the Heat on Tuesday.

How They Match Up:
The game also pits Miami's No. 7-ranked offense, averaging 98.5 PPG, against a Thunder defense that ranks No. 17 at 96.9 PPG. The Heat field goal percentage has averaged 46.9% so far, less than the Thunder shooters have achieved on the year, 47.1% per game.

In comparing how the teams stack up statistically, the Thunder own the league's No. 16-rated mark, allowing 97.6 points per game when on the road. Miami, on the other hand, rates No. 9 in home scoring.

Last time out for Oklahoma City, they were a 91-85 loser as they battled the Heat on the road. The Thunder failed to cover in the match as a 4-point underdog, while 176 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors. The Thunder wasted a 25-point performance from Kevin Durant as Miami ran past them 91-85 on Sunday at AmericanAirlines Arena.

Oklahoma City Thunder Trends:
When playing on Tuesday are 6-4
Before playing Miami are 6-4
After playing Miami are 5-5
After a loss are 7-3

Miami Heat Trends:
When playing on Tuesday are 8-2
Before playing Oklahoma City are 8-2
After playing Oklahoma City are 6-4
After a win are 7-3

A few Thunder at Heat trends to consider:
Oklahoma City is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Oklahoma City's last 13 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami's last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Miami's last 13 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City

Next up:
Oklahoma City at Miami, Thursday, June 21
Miami home to Oklahoma City, Thursday, June 21