Our NBA experts Christopher Walder, Nick Holz, and David Caraviello are here throughout the playoffs offering up their spread, moneyline, OVER/UNDER, and player prop picks for all of the action.
Nothing ever comes close to the thrill and excitement brought upon by a Game 7 in the playoffs, and we're blessed with what could be a classic on Sunday when the reigning champion Denver Nuggets host the visiting Minnesota Timberwolves at Ball Arena to determine who will advance to the Western Conference finals.
Let's take a closer look at all expert picks for this winner-take-all matchup.
(Related Link) 2024 NBA Playoff Series Prices
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NBA Expert Picks Results: Second Round
Expert | Record | Units |
---|---|---|
Nick Holz | 9-10 | -1.08 |
David Caraviello | 8-12 | -5.73 |
Christopher Walder | 8-18-1 | -9.22 |
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Game 7 Preview & Picks
Matchup Page: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets, 8 p.m. ET
Same-Game Parlay: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Game 7
Team | Spread | Money | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Minnesota Timberwolves | +5 (-108) | +164 | O 198 (-110) |
Denver Nuggets | -5 (-112) | -196 | U 198 (-110) |
Christopher Walder's Pick: Denver Nuggets ML (-196)
Since May 17, 2009, there have been 67 Game 7s in the postseason with the home team winning 45 of them SU, which equates to a winning percentage of 67.2 percent. We saw one as recently as the first round this year with the Cleveland Cavaliers eliminating the Orlando Magic at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse.
The moneyline for the Nuggets prevailing only offers $5.26 on a $10 bet, but at this point, just take what you can get. This series makes absolutely no sense after the road team won each of the first four games, with Denver blowing out the No. 1-ranked defense in Game 5 only to lose by an insane 45 points in Game 6 after only scoring 70 points in total. What are you supposed to tangibly take away from any of that?
The Timberwolves can still win this series, because we've already seen them win two in Denver's territory, and as just mentioned, nothing is what it appears to be. The reason the Nuggets get the edge here is because of their championship pedigree, they've won three of their last four Game 7s dating back to 2019, they'll have a home crowd behind them, and this also being Minnesota's second Game 7 in franchise history and the first in 20 years.
David Caraviello's Pick: Denver Nuggets ATS -4.5 (-112)
The Timberwolves regained some of their swagger with a must-have Game 6 victory at home behind 27 points from Anthony Edwards. The aggressive defense that put Minnesota up 2-0 in this series was back, and held the Nuggets to a miserable shooting night from the field.
But in a Game 7 in the Mile High City on Sunday against the defending world champions and the reigning MVP, there’s only one play to make. Nikola Jokovic was made for moments like this--Nuggets to win, Nuggets to cover, Nuggets to move on to the Western Conference final.
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Christopher Walder's Pick: UNDER 198 Total Points (-110)
Players tighten up considerably in these do-or-die situations with so much at stake, and that's ever apparent in the OVER/UNDER market with the UNDER connecting on 42 occasions out of those 67 aforementioned Game 7s.
The Cavaliers and Magic hit the OVER in the opening round, mind you, but they did so with a total of 200 points which beat what oddsmakers had at 195.5, which was the lowest mark since the Los Angeles Clippers and Utah Jazz in 2017 at 192 points.
Denver has also gone UNDER in five of its six playoff games at home, with the lone exception being Game 5 versus Minnesota with the 112-97 scoreboard (209) toppling what oddsmakers set at 204.5. It's been an even split at 3-3 in OVER/UNDER through six games, and even with the total pretty favorable at 198, the way things are progressing, Game 7 could be a slog offensively.
Nick Holz's Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves ML (+164)
I'm riding with the underdog Timberwolves to get it done in Game 7. As Chris pointed out, the road team won each of the first four games in this series, so I'm less inclined to follow the home favorites trends.
Instead, I'll follow the same NBA betting trends that led to pick the Indiana Pacers to win today. Road underdogs of six points or less are 39-23 ATS in Round 2 or later in the playoffs when looking to advance. Teams who win Game 6 usually go into Game 7 with a ton of momentum. Teams who win Game 6 have followed that up by going 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Game 7s.
I like Minnesota to limit Jamal Murray tonight and pick up the upset victory.