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NBA FINALS: Warriors Have Been Vulnerable On Spread At Home

The Golden State Warriors and Toronto Raptors will reconvene for Game 3 at Oracle Arena for the NBA Finals and the Warriors got the split they wanted in Toronto. The series is tied at 1-1 and the Warriors put on a clinic in Game 2 with great passing and excellent defensive rotations. The Warriors may be 3-5 ATS in eight home playoff games but they lead the postseason in scoring at 115.8 points per game at Oracle Arena.

The Warriors opened as 5.5-point favorites (since moved to -4.5) with a total of 213.

Raptors vs Warriors Game Center

Standout Stats

  • The Warriors may not have shot well in Game 2 but they certainly moved the ball like a hot potato. The Dubs assisted on 34 of their 38 baskets and rarely had a player go one-on-one to create a shot. The Raptors only assisted on 17 of their 35 made shots, with Pascal Siakam leading the way with five dimes.
  • Speaking of Siakam, his scoring output dropped off hard in Game 2 as Draymond Green made it a point to shut him down. Pascal scored 12 points on 5-for-18 shooting and no one on the Raptors shot better than 45 percent from the floor.
  • Going into Game 2, the Warriors’ bench had helped to carry the load to give the starters some support but the trio of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green played like all-stars. They combined for 65 points and only Curry didn’t shoot better than 50 percent from the floor despite leading the team with 25 points.
  • The Warriors get to come home for Game 3 and while they’re 6-2 SU, they’ve only covered the spread in three of those games with the two outright losses coming against the Clippers. The Raptors, on the other hand, are 4-4 SU in eight road playoff games while going 3-5 ATS and are 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games at Oracle Arena.
  • The Raptors’ scoring takes a massive dip in road playoff games compared to their home contests. At home, they average 108.4 points per game and shoot 44.7 percent from the floor, but on the road they’ve only managed to score 101.3 points per game and shoot 43 percent from the floor. On the flip side, Golden State leads the playoffs in scoring at home with an average of 115.8 points per game while shooting 48.7 percent from the field.
  • Injuries could play a big part for the Warriors in this series and especially in Game 3. Klay Thompson is expected to play after pulling his hamstring and Kevin Durant will likely sit one more game due to the Warriors winning Game 2. If Klay doesn’t go, it’s worth noting the Warriors are 0-4 ATS in the last four games without the sharpshooter and the UNDER hit in each game.
  • Stephen Curry has owned the Raptors in his career, averaging 28.7 points per game in 19 games vs Toronto, which is his highest average against any team in the NBA. In his last seven games against the Dinos, he’s averaged 27.2 points per game but has only shot 21-for-60 from behind the arc (35 percent).
  • Lots of interesting first-quarter trends coming into Game 3. The Warriors are 8-3 ATS on the first-quarter spread over their last 11 games while the Raptors are 4-2 ATS over their last six.
  • There’s a ton of OVER trends coming into Game 3 as it has hit in seven of the last 10 games in this matchup (average combined score: 231.2), in eight of the Warriors’ last 12 games as a favorite and in 12 of their 19 playoff games in the postseason.

My Best Bet for Raptors vs Warriors

Warriors -4.5

I’m continuing my crusade of picking against the Raptors in the playoffs and after what I witnessed in Game 2, I think this spread should be closer to 8. So, getting the Warriors at -4.5 feels like a gift.

Outside of Game 5 in Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference final, the Raptors have not looked great on the road in the playoffs and now have to play in arguably the toughest arena in the NBA. The Raptors are 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games at Oracle Arena and based on all of the stats I’ve detailed above, I expect this trend to continue for Game 3.