Fresh off a 120-105 win on home court last night, the Eastern Conference-leading Toronto Raptors head to Indiana to play the third-place Pacers. Tonight marks the third game of the season between these clubs with Toronto winning the first two. The Pacers will be the favorite for their sixth consecutive game since January 11 (4-1 SU and ATS) as they open as a 4.5-point favorite with the total at 217.5.
- The Raptors are 5-0 SU in their last five games vs the Pacers (avg. winning margin: 10.0).
- The total has gone UNDER in three of the Pacers’ last four games vs the Raptors (avg. combined score: 197.8).
- The Raptors are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games with no days off between games.
Leonard Will Sit Again
The Toronto Raptors continue to be selective in their use of Kawhi Leonard but you’ve gotta start to wonder if it’s not something more than rest as tonight marks the fourth game in a row without the former Finals MVP.
Interestingly, Toronto is 11-2 SU without Kawhi in the lineup, including a 121-105 win in the last game against Indiana. With this success, the Raptors have put themselves in a position to give their superstar as much rest as deemed necessary here in the first half of the season.
Are We In Store For a Low Total?
Three of the last four meetings between these clubs have gone UNDER the closing total with an average combined score of 197.8. Additionally, both the Raptors and the Pacers’ last three games coming into this one have hit the UNDER.
Indiana has the No. 1 scoring defense in the NBA at 103.1 points against per game while the Raptors have allowed an average of just 101.3 opponents’ points per game over their last three. Seventeen of the 23 home games for the Pacers have gone UNDER the closing total as they have the league’s No. 24 home scoring offense at 107.5 points per game.
My Pick for Tonight
Toronto is just 5-5 ATS as an underdog this season but I think the Raptors are in an excellent spot heading into Indiana tonight as they’re 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games without a day off between games. The Raps have also put up excellent results without Kawhi Leonard in the lineup and if the total was set a little lower, I’d be inclined to bet Toronto tonight.
However, at 217.5, I think the total is way too high and I’m going to be taking the UNDER in this game. We’ve got two of the top 10 defenses in the league and the No. 16 and No. 23 teams in terms of pace of play. Given these stats and the numbers outlined above, I’m comfortable with this play.
