The Eastern Conference Finals return to Milwaukee for a pivotal Game 5 between the Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks and the Deer are in an interesting spot. They’ve lost back-to-back games for only the second time this season and have yet to lose three in a row. The Raptors seem to have the momentum but failed to cover the spread in both games in Milwaukee.
The Bucks opened as 6.5-point favorites (since moved to -7) with a total of 216.
Standout Stats
- The Bucks have been an excellent home bet in these playoffs. They’re 6-1 SU and ATS in seven games at Fiserv Forum and own a +15.7 win margin in those games. In those contests, they’ve limited teams to 39.8 percent shooting and the Raptors shot a collective 39.6 percent from the floor in Games 1 and 2 of this series.
- The Bucks have been one of the worst first-quarter bets in the playoffs this year as they’re 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games with the lone win coming in Game 2 in Milwaukee. The Raptors, on the other hand, are 4-1 ATS for the first-quarter spread over their last five games.
- The Raptors finally got contributions from someone not named Kawhi Leonard. The Raptors spread the scoring around in Games 3 and 4, and Toronto’s reserves outscored Milwaukee’s bench 48-23 in Game 4. The Raptors had five or more players score in double figures in both home games, but in Games 1 and 2, only three players cracked double digits.
- In two road games in this series, the Raptors offense has sputtered. They scored only 100 points in Game 1 and 103 points in Game 2 while shooting 33.7 percent from behind the arc. They’re only averaging 100.7 points per road game in the postseason while being outrebounded by an average of 7.1 boards per game.
- The Bucks have controlled the paint for most of this series. They’ve outscored the Raptors 180-148 down low through four games while outpacing them 112-82 on the fast break.
- The OVER has hit in eight of the last 11 games in this matchup (average combined score: 224) and has hit in five of the Raptors’ last seven games overall.
My Best Bet for Raptors vs Bucks
Bucks -4 First Half
I would also recommend taking the Bucks for the full game at -7 but I like this play better because I think Milwaukee will come out strong and hit the Raptors in the mouth (figuratively, of course).
The Bucks’ shooting has been infinitely better when playing in Milwaukee and the Raptors’ hasn’t. Plain and simple. The Raptors’ shooting has not been great in any road game and the bench has not come to play and I fully expect that to continue tonight.
