If you’ve been betting the OVER on the regular during the NBA playoffs, chances are your bankroll is more banged up than the L.A. Clippers’ roster right now.
As of Wednesday, the OVER/UNDER is 10-24-1 this postseason for a lucrative winning percentage of 68.6 for the UNDER.
Does that mean you should go off carting wheelbarrows of money to your local sportsbook and start shoveling cash on NBA UNDERs? Probably not.
When it comes to season-long and postseason-long trends, things tend to even out over time. Oddsmakers are kind of amazing that way.
As an example, the O/U record in the NBA overall this season is 614-639 – a measly 51 percent edge in favor of the UNDER. And it’s almost always like that.
Looking back over the five postseasons prior to this one, the O/U in the NBA playoffs is 210-203-7. That’s a winning margin of just 50.5 percent for the UNDER. Last year favored the UNDER at 54.4 percent and the season before favored the OVER at 57.9 percent but each of the three postseasons previous to that had OVER/UNDER records that were separated by just one game or less.
Why these 50-50 records are beneficial for sports bettors is because the numbers suggest this year’s UNDER trend will likely come falling back to Earth at some point. Chances are if you play the OVER from here on out, you’ll probably end up OK at the end of the playoffs.
Did Forrest Gump put “100 quid” on Leicester City at 5000-1?
This video was flying around Wednesday where Tom Hanks says he placed this bet before the season began. When asked if he really laid the bet by the reporter in the vid he says “maybe I did and maybe I didn’t!”
I think it’s rather obvious he was just joking around but his joke twisted up the social medias for a bit. It is kind of awesome that he does sort of sound like a sports bettor though.
Game 7 trends worth noting
UNDERs have been a smart choice in NHL Game 7s over the past five years. The O/U is 8-17-3 now following the Blues’ 3-2 win over the Blackhawks on Monday.
It makes total sense. If you don’t watch hockey, every puck battle is a war and goalies have a way of bringing their best in Game 7s. The Blues-Blackhawks game was a treat if you’re a sports fan on any level.
Game 7s in the NBA have a solid trend of their own – the home team is 12-3 straight up and 10-5 against the spread over the last five years. Something to keep an eye for when we see our first hoops Game 7.
Anaheim hosts Nashville Wednesday in another Western Conference Game 7 in the NHL.
What’s a Tom Brady worth?
That was the question this week after the U.S. Appeals Court upheld Brady’s previously overturned four-game suspension.
The Patriots went from a pick ‘em in Week 1 at Arizona to a 5.5-point underdog. I wrote this week that I think Brady is worth more like a touchdown but I won’t be surprised to see the Pats come up with a strong contingency plan to get them through the first month.
Arietta is an OVER pitcher. Wait. What?
Cubs righty Jake Arietta owns a 0.87 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP and a no hitter this season yet all four of his starts shot OVER the total. Weird.
Game of odds
Sportsbook has released some Game of Thrones props this week after Sunday’s premiere episode of the latest season.
I can’t look at any of them, however, because I haven’t watched it yet.
There have been some crazy moves in NBA futures this week. The Spurs went from dogs to faves to dogs again to win the NBA championship following the knee injury to Stephen Curry, which will leave the Warriors’ point guard out for at least two weeks.
Currently they sit at 9-5 at the Sportsbook SuperBook while the Warriors are 5-4.
The Clippers also saw some massive movement after star point guard Chris Paul broke his hand and forward Blake Griffin injured his quadriceps in Game 4. The Clips went from 20-1 all the way up to 100-1 and bettors couldn’t fade the Clippers fast enough for Game 5 when they went from 2.5-point favorites to 3-point underdogs.
The Braves… wow... yikes
The 4-16 Atlanta Braves have three home runs this season. Three. As of Wednesday there were 64 MLB players with more.
Oddly, the OVER is 12-6 in their games this season.
About the only bright spot for Atlanta bettors this year is your team isn't the worst with a loss of $974 this year (based on betting $100 on every game). That distinction belongs to the Diamondbacks, who've lost $1,073