The No. 18 Arizona State Sun Devils are wrapping up their two-game SEC road trip as they tip off against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Vanderbilt University Memorial Gym. Arizona State hosted Vanderbilt last season with the Sun Devils grabbing a 76-64 triumph one year ago to the day. Tonight, the Sun Devils are a slight 1-point favorite with the total Sportsbook at 153 points.
- Arizona State has gone UNDER in six of its last eight games.
- Vanderbilt is 2-4 ATS in its last six games.
- Vanderbilt is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games at home.
Arizona State vs Vanderbilt Game Center
Commodores trying to find footing after injury to key player
There was a lot of optimism around Vanderbilt heading into this season after the recruitment of two 2018 McDonald’s All-Americans in Darius Garland and Simisola Shittu. Vandy jumped out to a 4-0 start to the year, fueling the fire for a promising season ahead. However, in the fifth game, Garland was lost to a season-ending knee injury. The Commodores are 2-2 overall since the freshman was injured, including losing the contest in which he went down. The offense has slowed down without their leading scorer, averaging 73 points per game with Garland removed from the lineup, a figure that excludes their 120-85 triumph over the Savannah State Tigers, who allow the most ppg in the nation this season at 100.5.
The 65 points that Vandy scored against NC State on December 1 was its lowest point total this season. The offense has had to make a major shift as Garland was a strong three-point shooter, hitting 47.8 percent of his 23 attempts through the first four games. Now the ball has to be worked down low to Shittu. The Canadian was averaging 15 ppg with Garland in the lineup and in the four games without him, Shittu is averaging 16.75 ppg. Defensively, the Commodores are just OK, surrendering 71.8 ppg which is 151st out of 353 teams, but they give up the eighth-most field-goal attempts per game at 66.
Sun Devils rebounded from Their first loss of the season
Arizona State stormed out of the gate to a 7-0 start, including a 72-67 victory over then-No. 15 Mississippi State in the MGM Resorts Main Event semifinals. However, its luck ran out in the Air Force Reserve Hall of Fame Classic as it collided with then-No. 6 Nevada and fell 72-66. The Sun Devils got back on track in the following game, their most recent, with a narrow 76-74 road win over Georgia. They are led by freshman guard Luguentz Dort, who tops the team averaging 20.9 points per game.
Arizona State is tied with Auburn at No. 22 in the nation in points per game and is doing most of its damage inside the three-point line. The Sun Devils average the 63rd-fewest triple attempts per game while getting the 20th-most points from two-pointers at 43.8. On the defensive side of the ball, teams like to use the long-range game to score on Arizona State, which allows the 62nd-most three-point attempts per game at 25.4. But those teams are hitting just 30.6 percent of those shots, the 64th-lowest percentage in the NCAA. Additionally, the Sun Devils do a fantastic job rebounding, ranking fifth in boards per game and 14th in defensive reounds, limiting their opponents’ second chances.
UNDER trending in tonight’s matchup
Both teams have been strong UNDER bets recently and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 153 points. Arizona State has gone UNDER in six of its last eight games with an average combined score of 150, while Vanderbilt has gone UNDER 153 points in five of its last six matches. Meanwhile, with the Commodores losing their leading scorer in Garland, their scoring has gone down and they’ve had to put more emphasis on their down-low play with Simi Shittu, requiring some adjustment. Lastly, these two teams played last year with a combined score of 140 points and I think the UNDER is a strong play tonight.
My take on Arizona State vs Vanderbilt
I like the Sun Devils to cover the 1-point spread. Arizona State only has one defeat this year, falling to then-No. 6 Nevada 72-66. Meanwhile, since Garland has gone down, Vandy is 2-2 with its victories coming over woeful Middle Tennessee and Savannah State, the latter allowing the most points per game in the nation this year. In addition, both teams are strong in the rebounding department, but Arizona State is slightly better and I think it should be able to maintain possession more often and carry it to victory. Lastly, the Commodores allow the 98th-most points from inside the arc in the nation, while the Sun Devils score the 20th-most points from two-point range.
