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No. 1 Baylor Takes on No. 3 Arkansas With Final Four Berth on Line

Mark Vital's Bears are favored in the Arkansas vs Baylor odds.

In a tournament full of upsets so far, both Baylor (25-2 SU, 17-10 ATS) and Arkansas (25-6 SU, 20-10 ATS) have found a way to advance to the Elite Eight. Baylor has won all three tournament games by double digits but Arkansas, on the other hand, has won back-to-back games by just a bucket.

Arkansas Razorbacks vs Baylor Bears
  • Date/Time: March 29, 9:57 p.m. ET
  • Arena: Lucas Oil Stadium
  • TV Coverage: CBS
  • Opening Odds: Baylor -6 | O/U 150 (Line History)
  • Arkansas vs Baylor Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

After beating Villanova by 11 on Saturday, Baylor opened this matchup as a 6-point favorite and the line has extended a full point to Baylor -7. The total for what’s expected to be a high-paced contest opened at 150 and has decreased slightly to 148.5.

Baylor News & Notes

In the tournament thus far, Baylor has been close to perfect. In their three wins, the Bears have won by an average of 16 points per game. All five starters are upperclassmen and couldn’t look more comfortable together.

Additionally, it helps when you have a potential NBA draft pick in Jared Butler on the roster. Butler enters this contest averaging just shy of 17 points per game while shooting 40 percent from behind the arc.

Baylor is building off a dominant second half against Villanova, outscoring the Wildcats by 18. The Bears shut down the Wildcats overall as well, holding them to just 51 total points and below 18 percent shooting from three-point range.

Arkansas News & Notes

The Razorbacks continue to have this underrated feel despite being a 3 seed. At one point this season, Arkansas ranked eighth in the country and finished the regular season with a 21-5 record. In just his second year coaching the program, head coach Eric Musselman led the team to its highest win percentage since the 1994-95 season. 

There is no question this team is led by future NBA player Moses Moody. The six-foot-six freshman guard has averaged 17 points per game this season. He is a major reason why this Razorback offense finished seventh in points per game and 28th in offensive rebounding. Senior forward Justin Smith averages a shade below 14 points per game and leads the team in rebounding at 7.3 per contest.

Betting Pick: Baylor -7

I do think Arkansas deserves all the respect for its dominant regular season and three straight wins in the tournament but it is facing a Baylor team that is simply on a different level. Baylor’s strength of schedule is next to none and its scoring attack is far too balanced to not blow this contest open in 40 minutes of play.

Shark Bites
  • The UNDER is 5-0 in Arkansas’ last five games.
  • The OVER is 12-3 in Baylor’s last 15 games.
  • Arkansas is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games.