Expect a Defensive Battle in Baylor-WVU Rematch

The Bears have struggled to end the regular season, going 2-2 in their last four games, but they’re facing a WVU team that they not only have beaten this season, but is in a total freefall having lost six of its last eight — while struggling to score points.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Baylor has a far superior record and has already beaten West Virginia this season, but the Mountaineers are 13-2 at home, so despite their poor recent play they still opened as one-point home favorites. The total opened at 129 points, which matches the exact total these two clubs equalled in their previous meeting, but is about 10 points lower than what these two programs have combined to average throughout the season.

Baylor News & Notes

It’s been a two-team race for the top spot in the Big 12 this year, as Baylor goes into its final game of the regular season one game behind No. 1-ranked Kansas… but a whopping six games ahead of the teams tied for third in the conference.

It’s a little bit of tough luck for the No. 4 Bears, who are 26-3 on the season and 15-2 within the Big 12, but after 23 straight wins Baylor is 2-2 SU over their last four games. They’ve allowed 68.25 points over that stretch, almost 10 points above their season average, which has led to the total going OVER in each of their last five contests.

Baylor may have to play without rotation regulars Mark Vital and Tristan Clark, who both missed the previous game with knee injuries, meaning their depth is in question in what is still a pivotal game — the Bears can still clinch the top spot in the Big 12 if they win and Kansas loses.

West Virginia News & Notes

West Virginia was building a strong resume for entry into the NCAA tournament, but things have gone absolutely off the rails as the Mountaineers have lost six of their last eight games, going 1-6-1 ATS over that same stretch.

What’s been the main culprit in this precipitous slide? An offense, which was already mediocre as the 233rd-ranked unit in the nation, that has really struggled: the Mountaineers are averaging just 61 points per game over their last eight contests.

They won’t find it any easier against Baylor, which boasts the country’s sixth-ranked defense. West Virginia is also an elite defensive unit, as evidenced by the total going UNDER in each of its last six home games. They lost their previous meeting against the Bears three weeks ago, but at least this is a home game for the Mountaineers, where they are 13-2 SU this season.

Betting Pick: UNDER 129

Baylor has the sixth-ranked defense in the nation and West Virginia is ranked 17th. With both teams have also struggled offensively this season, so I’m leaning towards this being a low-scoring game.