As 4-Point Dogs, Can Colorado Reverse ATS Woes In Oregon?

Playing in Oregon has not been kind to Colorado lately, as the Buffaloes have covered the spread just once in their last six visits. But armed with a stifling defense, and with Oregon coming off back-to-back losses, could Colorado notch another ATS victory as a 4-point underdog on Thursday?

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Oregon is a perfect 12-0 at home this season and has been successful against Colorado at home recently, so the Ducks opened the game as 4-point favorites at Matthew Knight Arena. Although Colorado has an elite defense, the Buffaloes have played in some higher-scoring games recently. Combined with Oregon also being much more offensively inclined, the total for the game opened at 139 points.

Colorado News & Notes

Following a thrilling comeback in which Colorado erased a 16-point second-half deficit in an 81-74 win over Stanford last Saturday, the Buffaloes sit atop the Pac-12 with an 8-3 conference record and a 19-5 overall mark.  

The victory was also the Buffaloes’ fifth in their last six games, although they’ve lost three of their last four games against the spread. Colorado has also seen the total go OVER in four of its last five games, signaling a little bit more offense and pace lately from a team that is 148th in the country in scoring … but 27th in defense.

The Buffaloes tend to clamp down defensively on the road, however, as seven of their last eight road games have seen the total go UNDER. They’re also playing in an arena that has not been kind to them lately — they’ve covered the spread just once in their last seven games at Matthew Knight Arena.

Oregon News & Notes

The Ducks are one game behind Colorado in the Pac-12 standings after suffering two straight defeats leading into Thursday’s contest. Those losses were on the road, however, so Oregon is more than happy to be returning home, where it is a perfect 12-0 this season.    

While it’s no surprise that the Ducks, who are second in the conference in scoring, have seen the total go OVER in 12 of their last 18 games and in five straight at home, they have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last six meetings with the defensive-minded Buffaloes.  

The Ducks need to end their losing streak if they want to keep their No. 17 national ranking — or at least stay in the Top 25. But considering they have not been strong over the last month, when they are just 2-7 against the spread, and center N’Faly Dante will miss his sixth straight game with a knee injury, a date with No. 16 Colorado may not exactly be what they need right now.

Betting Pick: Colorado +4

The Buffaloes are playing better basketball right now and they have an elite defense. Spotting them four points, even against a talented Oregon squad, is too good for me to pass up.