The No. 1 Duke Blue Devils make their way to Hawaii for an Sportsbook-round game vs the San Diego State Aztecs in the Maui Invitational. Both teams are putting their perfect records on the line as San Diego is 2-0 to begin the season and Duke is 3-0. This is the first meeting between the two schools since 2015 and Duke is a 15-point favorite in tonight’s game with the total Sportsbook at 157.5 points.
- Duke is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite of 15.5 or more.
- San Diego State is 3-48 SU in its last 51 games as a double-digit underdog.
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of Duke’s last eight games with a closing total of 158.0 or more.
Duke vs San Diego State Game Center
High-flying Blue Devils living up to early-season hype
Looking at 2019 NBA mock drafts, many have three Duke players going in the top three spots and, in order, they are Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish. This trio of players has been exceeding expectations through the first three games of the season, exciting fans with terrific shooting and rim-rattling dunks. The Blue Devils are 3-0 to start the year with an average winning margin of 31.33 and are fourth in the nation averaging 98.7 points per game.
Duke is getting it done defensively as well this season, surrendering an average of 67.33 points per game, including holding Eastern Michigan to just 46 points in its last game. Williamson has been a force on both sides of the ball, averaging 25.3 points and 10.7 rebounds per game. The Blue Devils as a team rank fifth in the nation in rebounding, averaging 48 boards per game.
Is the Aztecs’ offense up to the task ahead?
San Diego State’s starting five is working well as a unit through its first two contests of the season, with four of the five scoring double-digit points in the first game, while all five scored double-digit points in its second match. The Aztecs are ranked 23rd in the nation offensively, putting up 89.5 points per game, and are coming off a match in which they dropped 103 points against Texas Southern. They are shooting the ball extremely well from beyond the arc, hitting 44.4 percent of their attempts thus far.
The Aztecs have allowed the second-fewest points per game against in the Mountain West Conference, surrendering an average of 62 ppg. However, their first two opponents, Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Texas Southern, aren’t exactly the powerhouses that Duke is. San Diego State was outrebounded in its season-Sportsbook game, but looked much improved against Texas Southern, but I anticipate it struggling against Zion Williamson in tonight’s game.
Should you be on the OVER tonight?
This game features two of the top 25 offenses in the nation through the early stages of the year and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 157.5 points. Duke has shown the ability to flex its muscles against tougher opponents already this year, out-hooping then-No. 2 Kentucky 118-84 to open the season, while this will be the toughest task for San Diego State this year. The Blue Devils have gone UNDER in two of their three games but two of those contests went OVER 157.5 points.
Similarly, the Aztecs have split the total in their first two games with their most recent game going OVER 157.5 points. However, the total has gone UNDER in seven of Duke’s last eight games with a closing total of 158.0 or more. I think the young Blue Devils are going to want to show off in front of the Hawaii fans and I think they will put up a lot of points and carry the OVER.
My take on Duke vs San Diego State
I like Duke to cover the 15-point spread. The Blue Devils are 2-1 ATS through their first three games, with the only spread they haven’t covered coming against Army when they were 39.5-point favorites in a game they won 94-72. Duke hasn’t shown any difficulties scoring points in any of its first three games, while its defense appears to be improving. San Diego State will have to shoot the ball well if it wants to hang in this game as I think Duke’s big men will dominate the boards, limiting the Aztecs’ second chances. Lastly, the Blue Devils are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite of 15.5 or more.
