The No. 2 Duke Blue Devils make their way to the Petersen Events Center to tip off against the Pittsburgh Panthers. Duke is coming off an impressive 72-70 victory over then-No. 4 Virginia on Saturday, while Pittsburgh enters this game on a win-one, lose-one streak over its last six games. The Blue Devils have claimed three straight wins over the Panthers and are a 13.5-point favorite in tonight’s match with the total Sportsbook at 156 points.
- Duke scores the second-most points per game in the nation this season (89.2).
- Pittsburgh is 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games.
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of Duke’s last 11 games.
Duke vs Pittsburgh Game Center
Blue Devils’ defense isn’t as crisp on the road
Duke’s last week was filled with mixed emotions beginning with its 95-91 overtime loss to Syracuse on Monday, but it redeemed itself with a 72-70 win over then-No. 4 Virginia on Saturday. The defeat at the hands of Syracuse snapped a 13-game winning streak for Duke at home and the Blue Devils also lost starting point guard Tre Jones in that game.
Jones is the team leader in assists with 5.7 per game, while chipping in 8.1 points, but he is expected to be out for a while as he deals with a shoulder injury. In the Blue Devils’ triumph over the Cavaliers, freshman forward R.J. Barrett took over the point guard role and did so admirably. The native of Canada played all 40 minutes while scoring 30 points and adding three dimes, but Duke had a season-low six assists overall.
Although Duke is 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS in its seven games away from home this season, there are some red flags in its performances. Offensively, the Blue Devils take a slight dip in scoring in their away games, going from 90.7 points per game at Cameron Indoor Stadium to 87 points on the road. Most notably, though, they surrender an average of 67.1 ppg on the season but that elevates to 72.9 ppg in away games.
Panthers don’t do much damage from long range
Pittsburgh has been on a win-one, lose-one streak over its last six games, but at home over that span, it is 2-1, including a 75-62 victory over then-No. 11 Florida State and an 89-86 overtime triumph over now-No. 23 Louisville. Overall, the Panthers are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in their 12 games at the Petersen Events Center this season.
There are improvements on both sides of the ball for Pittsburgh at home that has led to its success. Scoring gets a pretty good bump as the Panthers average 76.3 points per game on the season to rank 84th, but that rises to 79.5 in front of their home fans. Meanwhile, their defense clamps down a little better as well, going from 66.8 points allowed per game on the year down to 64.8 ppg at home.
Only 26.9 percent of Pittsburgh’s points come from beyond the arc, which ranks 288th in the nation, but only 48.5 percent of its scoring comes from two-pointers, ranking 203rd. So that just means the Panthers like to get to the free-throw line to get some scoring as they average 26.1 shots from the charity stripe, the 10th-most in college basketball, and draw the 17th-most fouls per game – Duke commits the 51st-fewest fouls per game.
Is an UNDER in store for tonight’s game?
Despite the high-powered offense that Duke possesses, it has been a solid UNDER bet this season and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 156 points. The Blue Devils have gone UNDER in seven of their last 11 games with an average combined score of 153.09 and with five games either going OVER or pushing 155 points.
Meanwhile, this is the third-highest total that Pittsburgh has faced this year and it has gone UNDER in eight of its last 12 contests. Over that span, only three games went OVER 155 points, with an average combined score of 141.83. I think 155 is a perfect line but if I were to choose a total, I would be on the UNDER.
My take on Duke vs Pittsburgh
I like Duke to cover the 13-point spread. The Blue Devils have an average winning margin of 32.6 against unranked teams this season, going 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in those games. Although Pittsburgh is having a strong season with just six losses, it has an average losing margin of nine, but that climbs to 13 in its last four losses, including a 25-point defeat to then-No. 15 North Carolina.
One of the biggest issues for the Panthers is that they rank 342nd in offensive rebounds allowed per game at 11.1 and the Blue Devils grab the second-most offensive boards per game at 13.2. Additionally, Duke is very hard to score on down low, limiting opponents to 43.4 percent shooting from inside the arc, while it takes the 51st-fewest fouls and Pitt gets 24.6 percent of its points from free throws.
