Final Four Trends: Odds Favor Chalk

Louisville is favored to win the national championship and almost every Final Four trend points to the Cardinals winning the title next Monday.

By the time the March Madness bracket is whittled down to four teams, the upsets come to a screeching halt. In eight Final Fours since 2005, higher seeds are 12-1 SU over lower seeds. (Three games featured games between same-seeded teams).

And by the time you reach the national championship game, the higher seeds are 7-2 SU (with three additional games featuring No. 1 vs No. 1 same seeds) since 2001.

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And the favorites don’t just win in the biggest game of the season – they cover the spread too. Favorites are 9-3 ATS in the past dozen March Madness finales.

So with Louisville facing upstart Wichita State Saturday and favored by 10.5 points according to Sportsbook and other sportsbooks here at, it seems a lock they will play in the title game.

The other matchup is a No. 4 vs No. 4 battle as Michigan faces Syracuse, with the Wolverines favored by 2. That guarantees Louisville would face a No. 4 seed in the final and the trends say the No. 1 seed will win and cover.

Louisville is riding a 9-1 ATS in its past 10 games as a favorite, while playing eight straight OVERs in those games. Wichita State meanwhile has won outright as an underdog in all four tournament games this year, although this is the Shockers’ biggest test.

The Shockers have only been underdogs of 8.5 points or more 20 times in the past decade and they are 13-6-1 ATS in those games.

UNDER in Final Four?

The Final Four round has also been profitable for UNDER bettors lately. Since 2005, this round has produced UNDERs at a 11-4-1 clip. Favorites own a slight edge in the Final Four with a 9-6-1 ATS mark since 2005.