The LSU Tigers can pull into a tie with the Tennessee Volunteers with a win on home court tonight over the Florida Gators. LSU is an impressive 11-1 in SEC play, but more importantly from a betting perspective, the Tigers are 8-3-1 ATS in conference play. LSU is a 6-point betting favorite with the total at 140 for tonight’s game at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center.
Standout Stats
- LSU has the No. 6 floor percentage (possessions resulting in points) among D1 teams (53 percent) and averages just shy of 75 possessions per game.
- LSU has the No. 17 scoring offense in the country at 82.9 points per game while Florida has the No. 248 road scoring offense (61.2 ppg).
- Florida is 4-4 SU and 1-7 ATS in its last eight conference games. This includes road ATS losses vs Tennessee, Auburn and TCU and home ATS losses to Kentucky, Mississippi and Vanderbilt.
- The Gators are 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog while the favorite has covered the spread in five straight games in this matchup. Additionally, LSU is 4-1-1 as a favorite of 6 points or less this season.
- The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Florida’s last 15 road games with an average combined score of 126.9 and on the road against high-scoring Tennessee, the Gators and Vols played to just 134 points. The average combined score in LSU’s last 15 home games is 155.8 and the O/U is 8-7.
- Despite being ranked No. 13, LSU has the No. 185 home scoring defense at 71.4 points per game. Five of LSU’s last six home games have gone OVER the total with an average combined score of 164.5.
My Best Bet for Tonight
LSU -6
While I think this total goes OVER, I’m more comfortable taking LSU at -6. The Tigers are No. 47 in the country with 74.7 possessions per game and I think they control the pace of this game on home court, testing the Gators’ defense.
With the Gators on a horrid run of 1-7 ATS and their general inability to cover the spread as an underdog, I think the strength of the Tigers plus the weakness of the visitors will lead to a double-digit win for the home side.
