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No. 3 Houston looks to put the clamps down on No. 14 Georgia State

The No. 3 Houston Cougars ended their conference run on a sour note after losing to rival Cincinnati but will look to step up their efforts when they face the No. 14 Georgia State Panthers in the first round of March Madness. Georgia State won eight of its final nine games to punch its ticket to the tournament and is one of the highest-scoring teams in the NCAA.

The Cougars opened up as 11.5-point favorites with a total of 141.5.

Georgia State vs Houston Game Center


  • Georgia State is one of the best offensive teams in the country, averaging 75.8 points per game and shooting 38.4 percent on 25.1 three-point attempts per game. But the issue for the Panthers is Houston is excellent at defending the three-point shot. The Cougars allow 22.7 three-point attempts per game but limit opponents to a conversion rate of only 27.6 percent (ranked second).
  • Houston has one of the best defenses in the NCAA as it allows only 61.2 points per game (ranked seventh), is first in opponent field-goal percentage and has only allowed 70 or more points in four of 34 games this season.
  • Georgia State played against four opponents from Power 5 schools this season and went 2-2 SU and ATS. Their opponents were Creighton (loss), Alabama (win), Georgia (win) and Kansas State (loss). Only two teams they faced this season are in the NCAA tourney (Montana and Kansas State) and they lost both of those games. It’s worth noting they’re 4-1 SU in neutral-court games this season.
  • Houston likes to get a lot of its offense from behind the arc as it takes 25.6 three-point attempts per game (rated 52nd) and hits 35.9 percent of them. That’s bad news for Georgia State, which allows 27.4 attempts from deep per game to rank 346th out of 353 D-I schools.
  • The total opened at 141.5 and only 10 of Houston’s 34 games have gone OVER 140 points this season. Only nine of those games closed with a total above 140 points.

My Best Bet for Georgia State vs Houston

UNDER 141.5

I think this total is way too high for a game that Houston is involved in because its defense is legit and will likely clamp down on Georgia State, a team that relies far too heavily on the three-pointer for offense.

Houston isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut either and while I expect the Cougars to win this game, 11.5 points is a lot for a squad that hasn’t really proved anything and fell flat in the conference championship game vs Cincy. With each team canceling out the other’s strength, I tend to think a low-scoring game will come from it.