Coming off their first loss of the season to a battle-tested Tennessee squad, the No.4-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs schedule doesn’t get any easier as they face the No.12-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels at Chapel Hill. The Heels have two losses this year to Michigan and Texas but those games were at a neutral site and this time, they’ll have their roaring crowd behind them for this matchup. These two squads haven’t faced each other since the NCAA Final in April 2017 with the Tar Heels winning the NCAA title in the process.
The Tar Heels opened as 2.5-point favorites with a total of 176.
- Both teams rank in the top five in points scored per game.
- North Carolina is 1-1-2 ATS in five home games this season.
- The OVER has hit in 7 of the Tar Heels’ 9 games this season.
Bulldogs vs Tar Heels Game Center
Scoring isn’t Hard to Find with Gonzaga
Outside of the lone loss to Tennessee in their last game, Gonzaga has all the makings of a Final Four team. The growth of forward Rui Hachimura as a junior is a huge step for the Bulldogs as he is averaging 22.7 points per game and shooting 46 percent from deep. But it’s not just Hachimura that is pacing Mark Few’s program as Zach Norvell Jr. and Brandon Clarke are also chipping in a combined 33.5 points per game. Those scorers have pushed the Zags to average an insane 60 percent from the floor.
The last time the Zags had this kind of firepower, they were a 1-seed in March Madness and went all the way to the championship game against UNC where they eventually fell. The one phase where the Bulldogs may find difficulty in this matchup is in the frontcourt as only one player averages over five rebounds per game and they currently rank 31st in the nation in rebounds per game. I think they’ll be in tough to win this one but are one of a handful of teams that could actually be trusted to win in Chapel Hill.
Tar Heels Letting Spread-Bettors Down Lately
Taking UNC on the spread has been a risky endeavor lately as they’ve gone 1-4-1 ATS in their last five home games and failed to cover against teams like Stanford and St. Francis-Pennsylvania. The Heels are still waiting for freshman forward Nassir Little to reach his potential when he was a top-five recruit coming out of high school but coach Roy Williams still has him coming off the bench to provide a scoring punch. He was virtually a no-show when facing the Wolverines and Longhorns (UNC’s two losses) and if they don’t get at least 15 points out of him, it could be another long day for the Tar Heels.
Much like the Bulldogs, the Tar Heels rank fifth in points scored per game and with forward Luke Maye as the elder statesman in the starting lineup, UNC should definitely be able to light up the scoreboard. I think they should win this game but with letdowns already this season, they may not be able to match up with the Zags.
My Pick Is…
To take the OVER. I think both teams have a great shot to dethrone the other and with it split so evenly, I expect a high-scoring game. The OVER has hit in seven of the Tar Heels nine games this season with an average combined score of 176.7 points per game. The OVER has also hit in seven of the Bulldogs 10 games this season with an average combined score of 178.2 so get those OVER tickets to your bookie ASAP.
