The No. 3 Duke Blue Devils are back in action following their first loss of the season as they tip off against the Indiana Hoosiers in an ACC/Big Ten Challenge at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Both teams bring a 5-1 record into tonight’s play. The two met last year at Assembly Hall and the Blue Devils grabbed a 91-81 triumph in that contest. They are a 15-point favorite in tonight’s game with the total Sportsbook at 159 points.
- The total has gone UNDER in four of Duke’s last five games (avg. combined score: 155.2).
- Indiana is 0-3 ATS in its last three games.
- Duke is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in its last four games against Indiana.
How will the Blue Devils bounce back from first loss of the year?
The last time we saw Duke in action was in an 89-87 loss to the then-No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs in the Maui Invitational final. The Blue Devils had a few opportunities to either tie the game or earn the win, but failed layups down the stretch took that chance away. Defensively, they were getting taken advantage of down low as the Bulldogs were making short bounce passes to break up the zone defense the Blue Devils were using and Gonzaga had 16 assists to Duke’s nine. The two-headed monster of R.J. Barrett and Zion Williamson led the team in scoring with Barrett putting in a game-high 23 points, while Williamson had a 22-point, 10-rebound double-double.
Overall this season, Duke is averaging the fifth-most points per game in the nation, taking the sixth-most field-goal attempts per game at 68.5 and shooting 48.2 percent on those shots. The Blue Devils have given up a fair number of points in the early going, surrendering 71.2 points per game, which ranks in a tie for 132nd-fewest in the nation. However, they have played three teams ranked inside the top 10, giving up an average of 81.67 ppg to those teams, while limiting unranked teams to just 60.67 ppg.
ARe The Hoosiers up to their toughest test of the season?
For the second time in three seasons, Indiana has a 5-1 record heading into its seventh game. However, this is just the second time this year that the Hoosiers head out on the road with their first trip resulting in their only loss, a 73-72 setback at Bud Walton Arena vs Arkansas. Indiana battled hard in that game, shooting 40 percent from long range and 46.6 percent from the floor overall, but turnovers were an issue as the Razorbacks had seven blocks and eight steals in the game.
Meanwhile, 2018 All-American Romeo Langford performed well in the loss, scoring a team-high 22 points with 10 rebounds and five assists. The freshman guard is leading the team with 18.5 points per game and is second with 5.8 boards per game. Indiana leads the nation in shooting percentage, draining 55.1 percent of its field-goal attempts, but it only takes 57.2 shots per game, which ranks 209th out of 353 teams. Additionally, as mentioned above, turnovers have been an issue for them this season as they are averaging 15.2 turnovers per game which is tied for 264th-fewest in college basketball.
Should you be on the UNDER tonight?
Duke is becoming an UNDER machine and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 159 points. The Blue Devils have gone UNDER in four of their six games but the average combined score is 163 in those matches with three games going UNDER 159 points. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers have gone UNDER or pushed 159 points in five of their six games this season with an average combined score of 144.67. Both teams rank in a tie for 40th in the NCAA in opponent shooting percentage, limiting foes to just 39 percent.
The Blue Devils have had issues taking on teams like the Hoosiers that battle inside the arc, however, Indiana is taking just 57.2 shots per game, which ranks 209th in the nation. This is the biggest test for the Hoosiers and with them not taking that many shots, I have a hard time finding a way for this game to go OVER.
My take on Indiana vs Duke
I like Duke to cover the 15-point spread. The Blue Devils have an average winning margin of 25.2 points this season, and that increases to 28.67 in games against unranked opponents. Indiana does lead the nation in shooting percentage but this is the toughest task the Hoosiers have faced to date and in their only road game this year, they lost 73-72 to Arkansas.
Additionally, the Hoosiers are taking just 57.2 shots per game, which simply won’t be enough to get past a Duke team that is averaging 68.5 shots per game, which is the sixth-most in the nation, and 91.83 points per game. With the Blue Devils coming off their first loss of the season, I expect them to come out flying in this contest and they should cover the 15-point spread.
