The Iowa Hawkeyes (11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS) are 4-0 SU and 1-2-1 ATS in their last four games against the Wisconsin Badgers (11-2, 8-5). The Hawkeyes will try to extend their winning streak over the Badgers to five games on Thursday night in Madison.
Opening Odds Analysis
The Badgers opened as 2-point favorites in this Big Ten matchup and have been bet up to Wisconsin -3. Action on the OVER has bumped the total up to 147 points after it opened on Wednesday night at 145 points. The UNDER is 10-4 in Iowa’s last 14 games against Big Ten opponents.
Iowa News & Notes
Keegan Murray went 14-for-21 from the floor, including a 5-for-6 night from three-point range, to score 35 points and lead the Hawkeyes to an 80-75 win over the Maryland Terrapins.
Iowa had its three-game ATS win streak snapped after failing to cover the spread as 9.5-point favorites but did improve to 4-0 SU over its last four games with the win. Murray is the nation’s leading scorer with 24.5 points per game and is also averaging 8.2 rebounds per game.
Iowa went 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in November before hitting an 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS slump in December. The Hawkeyes have turned things back around with four straight wins, though those have all come at home. The team would love to earn a road win here after starting the season with a 1-2 SU road record.
Wisconsin News & Notes
Wisconsin needed a big game from Johnny Davis to beat a team as good as the Purdue Boilermakers on the road, and they got exactly that in Monday night’s 74-69 upset over the Boilermakers as 12.5-point underdogs.
Davis scored a career-high 37 points in the victory and also collected three assists and 14 rebounds. The sophomore guard has been red-hot over his last five games, averaging 25.8 points per game over that stretch. His 22.3 points per game on the season rank third-best in the nation.
The Badgers are now 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games with two big road upsets over the Houston Cougars and the Boilermakers. Wisconsin’s defense still needs to find more consistency, but this group can clearly compete with the top teams in the nation with its best effort on defense and Johnny Davis leading the offense.
How Iowa Will Cover
Iowa’s offense ranks third-best in the nation with 87.4 points per game, miles ahead of Wisconsin’s 70.6 points per game. If the Hawkeyes can open this game up and turn it into a shootout, it’s hard to imagine that the Badgers would be able to keep up.
How Wisconsin Will Cover
The recipe for success on Thursday night is the same for Wisconsin as it was on Monday: let Johnny Davis do his thing and make big stops in the defensive zone. The key to a home win and cover will be containing Keegan Murray.
Computer Pick: Iowa +3.5
For more college basketball predictions, visit our NCAAB Computer Picks Page.
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