The TCU Horned Frogs return home for a two-game homestand with the first coming against the No. 13 Kansas Jayhawks at Schollmaier Arena. The Horned Frogs have picked up back-to-back victories and are now seeking their first three-game winning streak since December into January, while Kansas has been on a win-one, lose-one streak over its last four games. The Jayhawks got the best of the Horned Frogs in early January but are 2.5-point underdogs in tonight’s game with the total Sportsbook at 148 points.
- Kansas is 1-6 SU and ATS in its seven road games this season (avg. losing margin: 7.83).
- TCU is 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS in its last six games.
- The total has gone OVER in six of Kansas’ last nine games.
Jayhawks look to end Road Losing Slide
Kansas is looking to try to find consistency, having gone 4-4 SU in its last eight games, and is aiming to pick up consecutive wins for the first time since it won three straight in early to mid-January. It’s notable that over those eight games, the four wins came at home and its four losses were on the road.
News broke Saturday that Kansas would be without senior guard Lagerald Vick, the team’s second-leading scorer, for the foreseeable future as he deals with a personal matter.
The Jayhawks average 76.7 points per game to rank 71st in the nation and get the bulk of their points from inside the arc as they score 41.1 from two-point range, ranking 29th. That being said, Kansas averages five fewer ppg on the road, including four fewer ppg from inside the arc. Kansas shoots 47.3 percent from the floor (40th) but that drops to 44.7 percent in away games.
Defensively, the Jayhawks are just OK, ranking 131st with 70.2 ppg allowed, an average that climbs to 73.1 ppg on the road. They do a very good job inside the arc, restricting opponents to a 45.3 shooting percentage, the 25th-lowest in college basketball. But they rank 288th in the nation by yielding 8.7 triples per game. Opponents are shooting 33.7 percent from three-point range overall and 36.9 percent when Kansas is on the road.
Horned Frogs Aim for a ninth straight home win
Confidence is high for TCU, riding a two-game winning streak, including a 92-83 road victory over then-No. 17 Iowa State on Saturday. The triumph over the Cyclones was its first win over a ranked opponent since January 2018, a span of seven games, six of them on the road. In addition to winning back-to-back games, the Horned Frogs have claimed victory on their home court in eight straight contests.
There hasn’t been much of an issue in scoring for the Horned Frogs this season as they average 76.2 points per game, which climbs slightly to 77.1 ppg at home. Much like Kansas, TCU gets a good portion of its offense from two-point range, chipping in an average of 39.3 points per game from inside the arc to rank 60th, and is shooting 53.9 percent from that area of the court (58th). From beyond the arc, the Horned Frogs shoot 35.2 percent to rank 127th but only hit 7.7 triples per game (171st).
TCU has the No. 94 defense, giving up 68.7 points per game, and surrenders 66.1 ppg at home. Most notably, it yields just 18.7 points per game from beyond the arc, the 31st-fewest in college basketball, but it ranks 220th by allowing 37.1 ppg from two-point range. Opponents shoot 49 percent from inside the arc overall and 46.9 percent at Schollmaier Arena.
Is the UNDER the bet to make?
We have two teams ranked in the top 80 in points scored per game and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 148 points. The total has gone OVER in each of TCU’s last four games, with only one game going UNDER 148 points and an average combined score of 154. Kansas has gone OVER in four of its last six games, but four of those contests went UNDER 148 points.
These two teams met on January 9 and played to a combined score of 145 when the total opened at 152 points. Kansas’ scoring goes down on the road, while TCU’s defense gets better at home. I expect another UNDER to come through tonight.
My take on Kansas vs TCU
I like TCU to cover the 2.5-point spread. Kansas is horrible on the road, going 1-6 SU and ATS this season with an average losing margin of 7.83, including losing its last four in a row. The Jayhawks score five fewer ppg on the road while defensively they allow three more points per game. Kansas gets the bulk of its offense from inside the arc, shooting 53.1 percent, but that falls to 49.2 percent away from home.
On the other hand, TCU averages one more ppg at home and allows two fewer ppg. The Horned Frogs do rank 121st in opponent two-point percentage at 49 but again, that drops to 46.9 percent at Schollmaier Arena. Additionally, the Horned Frogs are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games with an average winning margin of 13.88. Lastly, TCU ranks 127th in three-point percentage at 35.2, which improves slightly to 36 percent at home, and Kansas ranks 288th in opponent triples made at 8.7, which rises to 9.0 on the road.
