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Duke Big Home Faves vs. Louisville With ACC Top Spot On The Line

Duke vs Louisville Betting Odds January 18 2020

The Duke Blue Devils got caught in a trap game against Clemson, but don’t expect them to be fooled on Saturday when they host Louisville. With first place in the ACC on the line, expect Duke’s high-powered offense to shine against a Cardinals team that’s 1-2 against ranked opponents.

Louisville Cardinals vs Duke Blue Devils

Opening Odds Analysis

Duke is 2-0 against ranked opponents this season, 8-1 at home and has won five of their last seven matchups against Louisville. With the Cardinals also not playing their best basketball right now, the high-octane Blue Devils opened as eight-point favorites at home.

Despite both teams having highly-ranked defenses, Louisville defensive unit has slipped recently; combined with Duke’s sixth-ranked offense, the total opened at 138.5 points.

Louisville News & Notes

After back-to-back losses to ranked opponents, Louisville has gotten back on track with three straight wins to currently hold a tie for 1st place in the ACC. Sitting at 5-1 within the conference and 14-3 overall, the Cardinals are presenting themselves as a true championship contender, on the back of a stifling defense that allows the seventh-lowest opponent field goal percentage in the country.

Louisville survived in overtime fight against Pittsburgh on Tuesday, pulling out a 73-68 victory, but they failed to cover the spread for the fourth time in five games, they’ve also allowed 69.2 points per game over that stretch — well over their season average of 61.6 points. 

The Cardinals will need to get their defense back on track if they want to remain one of the country’s top programs but Saturday’s game might not be the remedy: the total has gone OVER in four of their last five road games and they’ve lost five of their last seven games against a high-powered Duke program.

Duke News & Notes

The Blue Devils are also 5-1 within the ACC and 15-2 on the season, but had a huge letdown in a trap game at Clemson Tuesday, falling 79-72. Both their losses this season have been major upsets but this team rises up to the toughest challenges.

Duke leads the ACC, and sits sixth in the country, with a blistering 83.1 points per game. They are lethal from the outside, with Joey Baker, Matthew Hurt and Cassius Stanley all shooting better than 40 percent from three, while point guard Tre Jones sits at 36 percent. The already scary offense can do even more, as Duke is just 250th in the nation in three-point attempts, so expect them to continue their trend of the OVER hitting in nine of their last 13 games.

This team isn’t one-sided though: the Blue Devils can also defend, sitting 13th in the country in opponent offensive rating. The total has gone UNDER in five of their last seven games against Louisville, but a shootout will be much more beneficial for Duke’s to come away with a win.

Betting Pick: DUKE -7.5

The Blue Devils can do it all and will be fired up coming off a disappointing loss. Louisville hasn’t been playing great basketball, and Duke will take advantage of that.

Shark Bites
  • Duke is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games.
  • Louisville is 3-5-1 ATS in the last 9 games vs Duke.
  • The OVER has hit in 6 of Duke's 9 home games.