The Madness comes to an end Monday night when No. 1 Kansas takes on No. 8 North Carolina for the 2022 NCAA men’s basketball national championship.
Both teams have pulled off some stunning victories and beat the odds along the way to get to this point, and now it’s time to break down the matchup.
In this article, we will take a look at a couple of March Madness finals betting trends and look at how these teams got to this point.
If you want to see who we like to win the game, check out our game preview of tonight’s matchup and our March Madness odds page, as well as the matchup page where you can see injuries, head-to-head history, recent team betting trends and everything else you need to get ready to bet on the big game.
March Madness Finals Betting Trends
If recent history is any indication, Kansas deserves to be the favorite, and not just because the Jayhawks are the higher seed. Here are a few notable betting trends that favor Kansas:
– Over the last 18 seasons, the higher seed is 13-5 against the spread (ATS) in the national championship game (72.2%).
– Since 2000, the favorites are 14-7 ATS and 15-6 straight up (SU) in the national championship game.
– North Carolina is 2-4 SU vs Kansas all-time in the tournament, with five of those six games coming since 1985. The Tar Heels went 1-4 ATS in those matchups.
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However, there are certainly some trends that might have you leaning toward UNC for tonight’s game.
– UNC is 6-5 in national title games in program history. Kansas is 3-6 in national title games.
– The Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS and 4-1 SU in the national title game since 1985 and were the betting favorite all five times.
– The Jayhawks are 2-3 ATS and 2-3 SU in the national title game since 1985 and were the underdogs in four of those games. The only time Kansas was the favorite for a national title game, the Jayhawks lost 67-65 to Syracuse in 2003.
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The Game Total
If you’re interested in betting on the total tonight, set at 151.5, the UNDER is 9-7 (56.2%) in the last 16 title games.
However, both of these teams play better offense than defense as the OVER was 20-17-2 (7-5-1 neutral site) in Kansas games this season and 22-16 (6-4 neutral site) in UNC games.
March Madness Betting Trends: How They Got Here
No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels
UNC is 29-9 this season and finished with a 15-5 conference record. The Tar Heels were bounced in the second round of the ACC Tournament by Virginia Tech, but finished the regular season on a five-game win streak culminating in a win over Duke in Coach K’s final home game.
Despite their letdown in the ACC Tournament, UNC beat No. 9 Marquette in the first round of the March Madness tournament and followed that up with big upset wins over No. 1 Baylor and No. 4 UCLA, two tournament favorites.
The Tar Heels then beat No. 15 Saint Peter’s in the Elite Eight to end that school’s historic run before taking down No. 2 Duke in the Final Four to win the rubber match with their top rival and end Coach K’s career.
Overall, UNC ranks 16th in kenpom.com’s efficiency rankings, a combination of their 18th-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency and 39th-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency.
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No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas stumbled down the stretch a bit by losing to in-conference rival Baylor on February 26, followed by a loss to TCU on March 1, but the Jayhawks have not lost since.
Their run of 10 straight wins includes a win over Texas to end the regular season, a sweep through the Big 12 Tournament, including a title game win over Texas Tech, and five March Madness victories.
Kansas started the NCAA Tournament with a win over No. 16 Texas Southern, then beat No. 9 Creighton, No. 4 Providence and No. 10 Miami en route to the Final Four. A win over No. 2 Villanova was their most difficult test of the tournament, and there’s no doubt the Jayhawks have had an easier path to the final than UNC. But, that’s what happens when you’re one of the best teams in the country and earn your No. 1 seed.
In terms of efficiency, Kansas ranks third in the nation in the overall adjusted efficiency rankings with the sixth-ranked offense and 17th-ranked defense.
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