A battle in the Big Ten has the No. 13 Maryland Terrapins (16-3) paying a visit to the Breslin Center to tip off against the No. 6 Michigan State Spartans (16-2). A winning streak will come to an end as Maryland has been victorious in seven straight games, while Michigan State is riding an 11-game unbeaten streak. The Spartans swept last year’s two-game season series vs the Terrapins and they are a 9-point favorite in tonight’s game with the total Sportsbook at 148 points.
- Michigan State is 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games.
- Maryland is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in its last seven games.
- The total has gone OVER in seven of Maryland’s last nine games.
Maryland vs Michigan State Game Center
Spartans are strong on both sides of the ball
Michigan State returns home following a two-game road swing in which it extended its winning streak to 11 games. The Spartans have suffered two losses on the year, falling 92-87 to then-No. 1 Kansas in their season opener and losing at Louisville 82-78 in overtime. They are also looking to pick up their 16th straight home victory, a streak dating back to last season.
The Spartans are the No. 8 offensive team in the nation, averaging 84.7 points per game, and have the sixth-best shooting percentage at 50.1. That being said, they have been without junior guard Joshua Langford for their last five games and are averaging 77 points per game over that span, though three of those contests came on the road. In Langford’s absence, leading scorer Cassius Winston has put the team on his shoulders, averaging 20.2 ppg (two points higher than his season average), and the junior guard is shooting 45.2 percent from beyond the arc.
On the defensive side of the ball, Michigan State has also stepped up recently, allowing just one opponent to score more than 70 points over its last seven games, after four teams broke that threshold through the first 11 contests. Overall, the Spartans are surrendering an average of 66.7 points per game, the 52nd-fewest in college basketball. One of their strongest areas is their ability to clean the glass as they secure the second-most rebounds per game, including the 47th-most offensive rebounds per game.
Terrapins’ FrontCourt continues to dominate
Maryland is coming off one of its biggest victories of the season and looks to carry that momentum into tonight’s match. The Terrapins made their way to Value City Arena to tip off against the Ohio State Buckeyes as a 3-point underdog but picked up an impressive 75-61 triumph for their seventh win in a row. Included in the streak is victories over two then-ranked teams and three road wins.
The Terrapins shot the three ball incredibly well against the Buckeyes, going 11-for-17 from beyond the arc for a shooting percentage of 64.7. They don’t take that many shots from downtown, launching just 20.2 three-point attempts per game to rank 254th, but they hit 37.1 percent of those tries for the 49th-highest percentage in the NCAA. Meanwhile, Maryland also gets a lot of production from freshman forward Jalen Smith (12.1 ppg) and sophomore forward Bruno Fernando (14.5 ppg).
The defense has been playing well for the Terrapins as well, with foes averaging 65.5 points per game, the 36th-lowest mark in the nation. Additionally, they make it hard on their opponents inside the arc as they are restricting opposing teams to a shooting percentage of 45.5 from two-point range to rate 29th. Lastly, with the strong play of Smith and Fernando, they are limiting foes to just 28.9 rebounds per game, including just 7.4 offensive boards, ranking 57th.
Which side of the total should you be on?
Michigan State has been a reliable UNDER bet recently, but Maryland has been an OVER machine and Sportsbook has tonight’s total Sportsbook at 148 points. This is the fourth-highest total Maryland has faced this season and it has gone OVER in seven of its last nine games with four of those matches going OVER 148.
Meanwhile, Michigan State has gone UNDER in five of its last six games with an average combined score of 140.67. Overall, I think both teams have been playing well defensively and the Spartans’ offense has slowed without Joshua Langford, so I think the UNDER is the bet to make.
My take on Maryland vs Michigan State
I like Maryland +9.5. I think the spread is too many points and the Terrapins’ losses this season have all been by five or fewer points and they have a lot of momentum heading into this game. I think both teams have been playing good defense recently and this should keep the score close.
Additionally, without Joshua Langford, the Spartans’ offense is averaging seven fewer ppg than their season average and has averaged just 72.7 points in their last three games. Lastly, Michigan State gets quite a number of second-chance opportunities from its offensive rebounds, but Maryland surrenders the 57th-fewest offensive boards per game and I think the teams will be battling all night there in a close game.
