The No. 22 Mississippi State Bulldogs are playing their second straight road game as they pay a visit to Rupp Arena to take on the No. 8 Kentucky Wildcats. Both teams enter this game on a winning streak: Mississippi State has won two in a row, while Kentucky has picked up victories in four straight games. The Wildcats have won 11 straight vs the Bulldogs and are a 6.5-point favorite in tonight’s game with the total Sportsbook at 145 points.
- The total has gone OVER in seven of Mississippi State’s last 10 games.
- Kentucky is 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS in its last eight games.
- Kentucky is 13-0 SU and 7-6 ATS in its last 13 home games.
Mississippi State vs Kentucky Game Center
Bulldogs continue to shoot well from beyond the arc
After dropping the first two games of SEC play, Mississippi State has picked up back-to-back wins, including a 71-55 drubbing on the road vs Vanderbilt on Saturday. The two straight losses at the beginning of conference play put an end to its nine-game winning streak dating back to late November.
The Bulldogs do a lot of their damage from long range, scoring 34.8 percent of their total points from downtown and knocking down 9.2 triples per game, the No. 41 average in college basketball. However, their offense has been scuffling recently, averaging just 75.25 points per game since they began SEC play and topping 80 points just once over that span. Additionally, Mississippi State is averaging 70.7 points per game on the road, scoring more than 80 points in just two of six matches.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Bulldogs are giving up the 78th-fewest points per game at 68.1 and rank 18th in the nation in opponent rebounds per game. Additionally, Mississippi State likes to attack the opposing ballhandler, creating the 50th-most steals per game at 7.6.
Wildcats are starting to roll
Kentucky opened SEC play with a 77-75 defeat at Alabama but has rattled off four straight wins since then. Most recently, the Wildcats earned a narrow 82-80 victory at then-No. 14 Auburn on Saturday for their second straight road win and now return home where they have won 13 straight games. Tonight’s match is the second of three in a row vs ranked foes.
The offense is well-balanced with four players averaging double-digit points per game, led by a pair of freshman guards in Keldon Johnson (14.9 ppg) and Tyler Herro (13.5 ppg). However, don’t expect the Wildcats to be pulling up from beyond the arc that often as they get just 22.4 percent of their points from downtown, ranking 343rd in college basketball. That being said, they are very effective at two-point range, shooting 55.1 percent for the No. 48 mark in the country.
Meanwhile, Kentucky has been clicking defensively recently, as it has given up an average of 68.2 ppg on the season but that has plummeted to 58.7 ppg in its last three and at home, it allows 62.2 ppg. However, one area of concern for tonight’s game is that the Wildcats are surrendering 8.4 triples per game, ranking 256th, and allow their foes to shoot 36.8 percent from beyond the arc to rate 294th in that category – not good against a team like Mississippi State.
Should you be on the OVER tonight?
Tonight’s game features two teams ranked in the top 50 in points scored per game and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 144 points. Mississippi State has gone OVER in six of its last eight games but with an average combined score of 136.38. Recently, its offense has stalled, averaging just 75.25 ppg in its last four, and it scores just 70.7 ppg on the road.
Additionally, Kentucky has gone OVER in five of its last nine games with an average combined score of 144.56. The Wildcats are susceptible to giving up triples, an area where the Bulldogs excel, which could help the total. I think both teams are going to find opportunities to play their game and points will be plentiful and the OVER will come through.
My take on Mississippi State vs Kentucky
I like Kentucky to cover the 6.5-point spread. The Wildcats are 13-0 SU in their last 13 home games, winning every game by seven or more points with an average winning margin of 15.92, and this season they are 14-3 SU with only one victory coming by fewer than seven points (82-80 win vs Auburn).
Meanwhile, Mississippi State’s offense has been scuffling recently, at just 75.25 ppg in SEC play and just 70.7 ppg on the road. Additionally, Kentucky’s defense has been rolling recently, limiting its opponents to an average of 64.75 over its last eight games, including just 60 ppg in its last four home games.
