The Purdue Boilermakers (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) are 14-1 SU and 9-5-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a betting favorite. The Boilermakers will look to cash in as a favorite this Saturday night when they take on the North Carolina Tar Heels (3-0 SU, 0-3 ATS) at the Mohegan Sun Arena.
- Date/Time: November 20, 4:00 p.m. ET
- Stadium: Mohegan Sun Arena
- TV Coverage: ESPNEWS
- Sportsbook Odds: Boilermakers -3.5 | O/U 152 points (Line History)
- Tar Heels vs. Boilermakers Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
The Boilermakers opened as 3.5-point favorites and received heavy enough betting action to move the line up to Purdue -7. The total has moved up slightly to 153 points since Sportsbook at 152 points. The OVER is 6-2 in North Carolina’s last 8 games.
North Carolina News & Notes
Armando Bacot scored 24 points and recorded 12 rebounds and six blocks in North Carolina’s 94-83 road win over the Charlston Cougars. Bacot is off to a red-hot start to the season with 18 points and 9.3 rebounds per game after leading the team in both categories last season with 12.3 points and 7.8 rebounds per game in 2020-21. Caleb Love is leading the team in scoring with 19 points per game and Brady Manek isn’t far behind with 17 per game.
Despite their hot start on offense, the Tar Heels are off to an 0-3 ATS start in large part due to their shaky play in the defensive zone. Allowing 83 points as 12-point favorites against Charleston and 87 points in a 94-87 win over the Brown Bears as 24-point home favorites hasn’t been the optimal start.
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Purdue News & Notes
The Boilermakers continued their dominant start to the season with a 96-52 win over the Wright State Raiders on Tuesday night. Trevion Williams (20 points, 13 rebounds), Zach Edey (18 points, 12 rebounds) and Caleb Furst (14 points, 11 rebounds) all recorded double-doubles in the victory. Purdue is averaging 94.7 points per game on offense while holding its opponents to just 62 points per game in the defensive zone.
This year’s Purdue squad is one of the most experienced teams in the nation having returned virtually everyone from last season’s team. With a normal post-quarantine preseason this year, chemistry from last year and normal player progression from experience, there is plenty of reason to be highly optimistic about the 2021-22 season for the Boilermakers. This matchup against UNC should be a good early litmus test for Purdue.
How North Carolina Will Cover
North Carolina’s defense hasn’t shown us early in the season that it is likely to do much against a high-powered offense like Purdue’s. The path to a cover here is to hang with them offensively in a shootout to cover the spread.
How Purdue Will Cover
Purdue’s defense has looked good this season, but it hasn’t faced a test as tough as North Carolina’s offense yet. If the Boilermakers can pass that test and prevent North Carolina from having a big day in the offensive zone, they should be able to score enough points on the other end to secure the win and cover.
Computer Pick: UNC +7.5
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Buy Sports Picks Now- North Carolina is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
- Purdue is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games
- The OVER is 4-1 in Purdue's last 5 games
