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Even With Low Total, UNDER Looks Good As Virginia Hosts NC State

NC State vs Virginia Betting Odds

Virginia boasts the country’s top defense but has such little offense that it has covered the spread just six times and has seen the total go above 120 points in just three games all season. Even with a low opening total, against one of the ACC’s top offenses, the UNDER looks like a smart play.

NC State Wolfpack vs Virginia Cavaliers

Opening Odds Analysis

Virginia is just 6-11 ATS this season, so despite having the nation’s top defense, its offense has been so ineffective that it has only opened as a 4-point home favorite against a middle-of-the-pack NC State team. With the total going UNDER in each of the last eight games between these schools, and with Virginia seeing a game total top 121 points just once all season, the total for this game opened at 119.5 points.

NC State News & Notes

The Wolfpack went 2-2 in four games without leading scorer C.J. Bryce but have won two straight since he’s returned — and the offense looks ready to roll once again.

Sidelined with a concussion, Bryce returned in a bench role against Miami on Wednesday but played the entire 40 minutes in Saturday’s 60-54 win over Clemson. Averaging 15 points per game this season, Bryce’s return is a big boost to a Wolfpack club that is second in the ACC in scoring. 

NC State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games, but that strong play will be tested against a Virginia team it has lost eight straight games against — and has covered the spread just once in the last five matchups. Going against the Cavaliers’ elite defense, the Wolfpack will need every point they can get. 

Virginia News & Notes

The defending NCAA champions got out to a 10-1 start on the season, then lost four of their next six games, including three straight defeats, before logging a 63-58 win over Georgia Tech on Saturday.

Virginia is all about defense: it currently has the top-ranked scoring defense in the country, allowing just 49.5 points per game. Unfortunately, that elite defense is paired with an offense that is last in the ACC by a wide margin, averaging just 55.8 points per game while shooting 40.6 percent from the floor (third-worst in the conference) and an ACC-worst 26.7 percent on three-pointers. 

Their inability to pull away from inferior opponents has led to the Cavaliers covering the spread in just four of their last 15 games. 

Betting Pick: UNDER 116.5

The total has gone UNDER in four of NC State’s last five games within the ACC, and in each of the last eight meetings between these teams. With Virginia — and its stifling defense — at home, I think we see another low-scoring game.

Shark Bites
  • The UNDER is 7-1 in NC State’s last 8 games.
  • Virginia is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games.
  • The OVER is 5-2 in Virginia’s last 7 games.