North Carolina Vs Duke Odds & Picks: Tar Heels Are Fading Away

The most storied rivalry in college basketball tips off Saturday with Duke and North Carolina on opposite ends of the spectrum in the ACC. The Blue Devils have won 14 straight, are ranked No. 2 in the country, and are unbeaten in conference play. No surprise they’re a 13.5-point home favorite over the Tar Heels, who have dropped three of four and are no guarantee even to make the NCAA tournament.

Duke (18-2 outright) has also been the best team in the ACC ATS to this point, with a 60 percent cover rate according to data at TeamRankings.com. North Carolina (13-9 outright) has covered just two of its last 10 outings, and carries a skid of four straight ATS losses into Cameron Indoor Stadium—where the Blue Devils are unbeaten outright, and have covered in seven of 12 games thus far.

North Carolina vs Duke Odds Today

Matchup Page: North Carolina vs Duke, 6:30 PM ET

Odds as of January 31 at Sportsbook

North Carolina vs Duke Today

Duke -13.5 (-105) & OVER 149.5 (-105) at Sportsbook

What’s happened to North Carolina? Hubert Davis’s rosters have always been a little thin, and this year it’s cost them. There’s been nobody able to step up and fill the substantial void created by the departure of All-ACC big man Armando Bacot, now with the NBA’s Memphis Grizzlies. That’s placed an immense load on scoring guard RJ Davis, who’s been good but not quite the All-American who averaged 21.2 points a game last season.

Duke, meanwhile, has coach Jon Scheyer’s best team. The Blue Devils are loaded with scorers beginning with future NBA lottery pick Cooper Flagg, who’s been as advertised—the true freshman is getting better as the season goes along, hitting for 24 or more in four of his last five. The Devils also rank fifth nationally in scoring defense, and have an edge that’s been noticeably lacking the past few years, when more physically aggressive teams have been able to push them around.

Not this season. While the Blue Devils haven’t been a sure thing ATS—they’ve failed to cover in two of their past three games, including Monday in a 10-point victory over 22-point dog N.C. State—North Carolina is fading as the season hits the stretch run. Losing outright to 12-point underdog Stanford at home last week sums up the current state of the Tar Heels, who were handled by double-digits the last two times they played a top-10 team.

North Carolina the second-highest-scoring team in the ACC at 81.7 points per game, yet has gone UNDER in eight of its last nine games. The Tar Heels have gone OVER just once in 10 conference games thus far. Duke is roughly even against the total, but we’ll go with the OVER since the Blue Devils average 80 a game, and we’re also backing them to cover a double-digit spread at home.

North Carolina vs Duke News

Jalen Washington, the Tar Heels’ often-injured 6-10 forward, missed UNC’s loss to Pittsburgh on Tuesday with a knee injury, and his status for Duke on Saturday remains uncertain. Washington is averaging 6.9 points and 5 boards per outing. Blue Devils reserve guard Maliq Brown is also dealing with a knee injury, and has not played since Jan. 11 against Notre Dame.

North Carolina vs Duke Betting Trends