After a first-half stumble that saw bettors reminisce of last year’s NCAA tourney, the No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers roared back to beat No. 16 Gardner-Webb and avoided another first-round meltdown. Now, they move on to the second round to face the No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners, who romped Ole Miss by 23 points in their first-round matchup. The Cavaliers opened as 11.5-point favorites and are 20-0 SU this season when favored by double digits.
Oklahoma vs Virginia Game Center
STANDOUT STATS
- Virginia has the top defense in the NCAA, only allowing 55.1 points per game and ranking first in opponent three-point percentage (27.5 percent) on 21.5 attempts per game (rated 138th).
- In 13 games against non-conference opponents, Virginia was undefeated (9-4 ATS) and had an average win margin of 21.7 points per game.
- Virginia is one of the best shooting teams in the NCAA, averaging 40.9 percent (ranked fourth) from three-point range on only 20.8 attempts (rated 243rd).
- Oklahoma also has a defensive style of play, ranking 78th in points allowed per game (68.2) while holding teams to 40.2 percent from the field (rated 23rd) and 33.3 percent from behind the arc (rated 89th).
- Rebounding could be key in separating these two teams and Oklahoma owns the edge in that category. The Sooners average 37.4 rebounds per game (ranked 59th) compared to Virginia at 34.8 (ranked 191st).
- This will be the first time this season that Oklahoma is a double-digit underdog. The Sooners are 5-0 ATS in the last five games in that spot. However, Virginia has been a double-digit favorite in 20 games this season and is 20-0 SU and 13-7 ATS with an average win margin of 22.7 points per game.
My Best Bet for Oklahoma vs Virginia
Virginia -11.5
I heavily considered taking Oklahoma to cover the spread but I think Virginia will put a beatdown on the Sooners. Oklahoma’s offense isn’t that great and it got a favorable matchup in the first round vs Ole Miss. Virginia is head and shoulders a much better team than Ole Miss and the Cavs crush teams when they’re double-digit faves, beating teams on average by 20 points or more.
The Sooners may keep it close for the first half but the Cavaliers’ defense and three-point shooting will help them pull away to win by 12 or more.
