The 2018 2K Classic begins as the undefeated No. 13 Oregon Ducks tip off against the undefeated Iowa Hawkeyes at Madison Square Garden. This is the first meeting between these two schools since 2012 when they collided in the second round of the NIT with Oregon earning a 108-97 victory, snapping a five-game losing slide to Iowa. The Ducks are a 3-point favorite in tonight’s game with the total Sportsbook at 152.5 points.
- The total has gone OVER in six of Iowa’s last seven games (avg. combined score: 161.0).
- Oregon is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite of 3.5 or more.
- Iowa is 2-5 SU and ATS in its last seven games vs the Pac-12.
The Ducks’ recruits are chipping in early
Oregon did a great job bringing in new players this year, ranking third in the nation for its recruiting efforts, headlined by seven-foot-two center Bol Bol and 2018 McDonald’s All-American Louis King. Overall, the Ducks brought in six new players to join five returning players, so there has definitely been an adjustment period in the early stages of the season. Bol has started in the first two games, scoring a double-double in both, and is averaging 17.5 points and 12 rebounds. Meanwhile, King isn’t expected to make his Oregon debut until sometime next month as he is dealing with a knee injury.
The Ducks are shooting well to kick off the season, hitting 51.4 percent from the floor and 43.8 percent from beyond the arc, though they have only had 32 three-point attempts thus far. It was a struggle under the rim in the season-Sportsbook game against Portland State as Oregon was outrebounded 41-38 and only grabbed 28 defensive rebounds to the Vikings’ 25 offensive boards. The team did much better in its second game vs Eastern Washington, outrebounding the Eagles 50-34, including 38 defensive boards to Eastern Washington’s 11 offensive rebounds.
Defense continues to be a struggle this year for Iowa
Last season, the Hawkeyes ranked near the bottom in the nation and dead last in the Big Ten – for the second straight year – in points allowed per game at 78.7 and it was an area they needed to improve upon in the offseason. They have made an incremental improvement through the first two games, and I can’t stress enough that it’s still early, allowing 72.5 points per game, which is the third-worst in the Big Ten. But this will be their first true test of the year as Oregon averages 82.5 points per game.
Iowa is being outshot 133-100 after two games against much weaker teams in UMKC and Green Bay – not a great recipe for success. Additionally, it is just narrowly outrebounding opponents 76-68 and that’s going to be an interesting area to tonight’s game matching up against a powerful player in Bol Bol. A positive outlook for the Hawkeyes is their ability to get to the line as they have drawn a total of 57 fouls this year and are shooting a respectable 74.7 percent from the charity stripe.
Should you be on the OVER tonight?
Oregon and Iowa have been shooting the ball well through their first two games and Sportsbook has tonight’s total Sportsbook at 152.5 points. Both teams are averaging north of 80 points per game thus far with the Ducks at 82.5 in their first two games, while the Hawkeyes are averaging 85 through their first two.
Meanwhile, the total has gone OVER in six of Iowa’s last seven games with an average combined score of 161.0 dating back to last season and it doesn’t appear the Hawkeyes have made the necessary changes to prevent high-scoring games this year. They are ranking third-worst in the Big Ten in points allowed per game, surrendering 72.5 ppg. I think that Oregon’s young recruits, most notably Bol Bol, are going to have a field day with this suspect Iowa defense.
My take on Oregon vs Iowa
I like the Ducks to cover the 3-point spread. Oregon is scoring 82.5 points per game while allowing the sixth-fewest points among teams that have played at least two games. Meanwhile, Iowa is able to hang around offensively, but its defense has been letting it down, surrendering an average of 72.5 ppg which could be the difference tonight. If the Ducks continue to improve their rebounding game as they have done through the first two matches, they should be able to get plenty of second opportunities to run up the score. Lastly, Oregon is 2-0 ATS this year, while Iowa is 0-2 ATS.
