The No. 2 Duke Blue Devils welcome a second straight Ivy League team to Cameron Indoor Stadium as the Princeton Tigers look to make a statement. This is the first meeting between these two schools since 2010 and Princeton is looking for its first triumph over Duke since 1981. The Blue Devils are huge 31-point favorites in tonight’s game with the total Sportsbook at 155 points.
- The total has gone UNDER in eight of Duke’s 10 games this season.
- Duke is 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS this season (avg. winning margin: 30.44).
- Princeton is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.
The Tigers’ offense got a boost recently
Princeton packs up and heads out on the road for a three-game road swing, with its first stop coming at a location where it has never won. The Tigers put an end to their brief two-game losing slide with their come-from-behind 85-81 victory over Iona in the Air Force Reserve Hall of Fame Classic on Saturday. The 85 points they scored matched a season high and their offense has shown some signs of life since Jaelin Llewellyn has entered the lineup after missing the first seven games due to an illness and an injury.
The freshman guard from Canada has averaged 19.5 points per game in the two games he’s played, which plants him second on the team for scoring while leading the squad with six assists per game. Princeton has averaged 71.2 points per game this season which ranks 213th out of 353 teams, but that has risen 9.1 points over its last three games to 80.3 ppg, which is tied for the 50th-most over that span.
Overall, the Tigers rely on long-distance shooting for their offense as 37.9 percent of their points come from beyond the arc, which ranks 54th in the nation. Over their last three games, that has risen again to 47.3 percent, which is the 14th-highest rate in the nation. This, again, can be partly attributed to the addition of Llewellyn as he is averaging 5.5 three-point attempts per game and is hitting 45.5 percent of his triples.
Defensively, they do a very poor job cleaning the glass, averaging just 31.4 rebounds per game, which is the 32nd-fewest in college basketball. Additionally, they are allowing too many open shots as their opponents have a 45.4 shooting percentage and that has risen to 52.7 percent over their last three games, which is the 18th-highest percentage in the NCAA.
Blue Devils look to get back on track following a break in action
Duke returns to the court following a 10-day hiatus during the school’s first-semester exams. Prior to the break, the Blue Devils had rattled off four straight victories, all at Cameron Indoor Stadium, with an average winning margin of 37. On the year, they are 9-1 SU, falling only to then-No. 3 Gonzaga in a narrow 89-87 loss in the Maui Invitational final. Duke is scoring the third-most points per game in the nation at 92.9 and the offense is led by the two-headed monster of R.J. Barrett and Zion Williamson.
Barrett, a freshman forward from Canada, is leading the march with 24.2 points per game, while also chipping in 7.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists. Williamson, a freshman forward from South Carolina, is adding 20.4 ppg and 9.0 boards per game. In addition to being a powerhouse offensively, from the stats above it should also be noted that the Blue Devils grab the second-most offensive rebounds per game at 14.6, which allows them second opportunities to continue racking up points.
Meanwhile, on the defensive side of the ball, Duke gives up 65.7 ppg, which is the 49th-fewest in the nation. That figure has plummeted to 53.7 ppg over its last three, which is the third-fewest. Overall, the Blue Devils rank in the top portion in the league in nearly every defensive category, holding opponents to a 37.4 shooting percentage which is the 11th-lowest in the nation, creating 16.7 turnovers per game to rank 25th and allowing just 6.4 three-pointers against, which is the 68th-fewest in college basketball.
Is the UNDER the bet to make?
Despite having one of the top-scoring teams in the nation in this game, the UNDER may be your best wager and Sportsbook has tonight’s total Sportsbook at 155 points. This is the highest Sportsbook total for Princeton this season and it has gone OVER that number in each of its last three games with an average combined score of 167.67.
However, Duke has gone UNDER in eight of its last nine games, including its last four in a row, with an average combined score of 153.78, with only four games going OVER 155 over that span. The Tigers run most of their offense from beyond the arc and the Blue Devils rank 26th in the nation in opponent three-point percentage at 28.2. Duke will definitely pile on its points but I’m not sure that Princeton will be able to hold up its end of the bargain and I think an UNDER is in store for tonight’s game.
My take on Princeton vs Duke
I like Duke to cover the 31-point spread. The Blue Devils had an average winning margin of 37 through their four games prior to their exam break and overall at Cameron Indoor Stadium this season they have an average winning margin of 34.67. Meanwhile, Princeton is 0-3 SU and ATS in its three games as an underdog this year with an average losing margin of 13.33, and none of those teams can hold a candle to Duke.
Lastly, the Tigers are one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation, while the Blue Devils are one of the best, which will result in Duke getting plenty of opportunities. Princeton is allowing its opponents to shoot over 50 percent over its last three games, which is a recipe for disaster.
