January 31, 2019, 7:00 PM EST | Bryce Jordan Center
Game Preview
Purdue
Boilermakers
14 - 6
Penn State
Nittany Lions
7 - 13
January 31, 2019, 7:00 PM EST | Bryce Jordan Center
The Penn State Nittany Lions wrap up their two-game homestand by welcoming the red-hot No. 17 Purdue Boilermakers to the Bryce Jordan Center. This is a contest between two teams trending in opposite directions as Purdue is seeking its sixth win in a row, while Penn State is looking to pull out of a seven-game losing slide. The Boilermakers have won each of the last seven meetings with the Nittany Lions and are a 7-point favorite tonight with the total Sportsbook at 137 points.
Shark Bites
Purdue is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in its last nine games.
Penn State is 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS in its last nine games.
The total has gone UNDER in seven of Penn State’s last nine games.
Boilermakers Continue to Splash from Beyond the Arc
Purdue is on its best roll of the season, rattling off five straight victories, most recently earning a 73-63 home victory over then-No. 6 Michigan State. Since December 20 the Boilermakers are 8-1 SU, with three victories over ranked foes and its only defeat coming at the Breslin Center where it fell 77-59 to Michigan State on January 8.
The Boilermakers have had a fairly strong offense this season, scoring 78 points per game for the No. 55 average in college basketball. They get 41 percent of their points from beyond the arc, the 13th-highest percentage in the nation, and pour in an average of 31.9 points per game from downtown to rank seventh. They are led by junior guard Carsen Edwards, who is sixth in the NCAA in scoring at 24.2 points per game.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Boilermakers are allowing an average of 68 points per game, tied for 79th in the nation. While having a fantastic scoring touch from long range, they don’t do a great job defending the three-point line, allowing an average of 26.6 ppg from downtown, which is the 46th-most in the NCAA. Purdue, though, does a great job maintaining ball possession, averaging just 11 turnovers per game (24th).
Nittany Lions Struggling to find Offense
Penn State has dropped each of its last seven games and is 0-9 in Big Ten play overall. Four of the defeats in the losing slide came at the Bryce Jordan Center, three of them against ranked opponents. Tonight’s game is the Nittany Lions’ seventh against a ranked opponent and they’ve gone 1-5 in the previous six with their lone win being a 63-62 home triumph over then-No. 13 Virginia Tech.
The biggest issue for them is their lack of offense. They score just 67.4 points per game, the 67th-fewest in the nation. Penn State gets a lot of looks at the rim, averaging 59.5 shots per game to rank in the top 100, and takes 23 three-point attempts per game (147th). However, the Nittany Lions’ shooting percentage from the floor (41 percent) is the 57th-worst in college basketball and their three-point shooting has the same ranking.
However, it’s not all bad for the Nittany Lions as their defense has been fairly solid. They are tied with Purdue at 68 points allowed per game and are especially good protecting the arc. They are giving up an average of 19.6 points per game from three-point range, ranking 61st, but they are only facing 18.6 attempts from beyond the arc and those teams are hitting 35.2 percent of those shots.
Is an UNDER in store for tonight’s game?
Purdue and Penn State both have solid defenses, allowing just 68 points per game, and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 137 points. Penn State has been an UNDER machine recently, going UNDER in seven of its last nine games, with only one game going OVER 137 points.
Meanwhile, Purdue has been flip-flopping on the total over its last eight games with four games going OVER and four going UNDER, with half of the contests going UNDER 137 points. I think Purdue is going to be able to find success frequently from downtown but I don’t know if Penn State will carry its end of the deal. If I were to make a choice, I would be on the OVER.
My take on Purdue vs Penn State
I like Purdue to cover the 7-point spread. The Boilermakers have been on a spread tear recently, going 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS over their last nine games with an average winning margin of 16.38, with only one game being settled by fewer than 10 points. On the other hand, Penn State has gone 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS in its last nine games with an average losing margin of 9.25, with only three games being settled by fewer than seven points.
NC State, Wisconsin and Iowa averaged 83 points against Penn State and each of those teams ranks around 100th in points per game from three-point range, and now the Nittany Lions are playing the team ranked seventh in ppg from downtown. Lastly, Penn State ranks 287th with just 67.4 points per game this season.
