Belmont meet Temple. Temple meet Belmont. All right, let’s play with the season on the line. The Owls and Bruins hook up in a March Madness play-in game Tuesday night at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio. The location is interesting, given that it’s about equidistant from both campuses, just a touch closer to Belmont. The Bruins are 3.5-point favorites with the total Sportsbook at 155.5.
Standout Stats
- Belmont has the No. 2 scoring offense in the nation at 87.4 points per game, 1.4 points behind Gonzaga. Like Gonzaga, Belmont beat up on bad teams, most of which were in the bottom 50 of scoring defenses in the entire country.
- Temple is 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS vs Top 25 teams, including a straight-up win vs No. 11 Houston. The Owls have had a much more difficult strength of schedule than Belmont to this point.
- Eleven of Temple’s last 13 games have gone UNDER 155 total points. The games that went OVER had 156 and 157 total points. In Belmont’s games against defenses in the top 100, scores have routinely gone UNDER the total by double digits.
- Temple’s opponents take 16.8 fouls per game, while Belmont’s opponents take 16.5 fouls per game. These averages are both in the bottom 90 of the country. Both teams are in the top 100 in terms of possessions per game.
- In Temple’s two games vs high-scoring Houston, the final scores were 73-66 (L) and 73-69 (W). The Owls can hang with good offenses. Both totals were well UNDER 155 as well.
- Belmont is 3-1 SU and ATS in games as a favorite of 4 points or less this season (O/U 3-1). Temple is 6-2 SU and ATS in games as an underdog of 4 points or less this season – including SU wins vs Missouri, Wichita State and UConn (O/U 4-2-1).
- Temple was 13-2 SU on home court but just 10-7 SU in games away from Philadelphia. The seven losses away from home court include a four-point loss at Villanova, a seven-point loss at Houston and an eight-point loss at Memphis.
My Best Bet for Temple vs Belmont
UNDER 155.5
While I believe that Temple covers the spread in this game and could very well win straight up, I think the best bet in this one is UNDER 155.5. Belmont’s scores were inflated this season due to some very weak competition and Temple will be one of the best defenses it has faced. In the Bruins’ previous games against capable defenses, the scores were kept well below 155.5.
Additionally, we are likely to see a feeling-out period in this game as two out-of-conference teams get used to each other. I would expect this to result in a slower start, shaving points off this already high total.
