The Vanderbilt Commodores conclude their three-game homestand by welcoming the newly minted No. 1 Tennessee Volunteers to Memorial Gymnasium. This is a game of two teams trending in opposite directions as Vanderbilt has dropped each of its last five matches, while Tennessee is riding a 12-game winning streak. The Volunteers have won the last two contests with the Commodores and are an 11-point favorite in tonight’s game with the total Sportsbook at 149 points.
- Vanderbilt is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in its last five games.
- The total has gone UNDER in nine of Vanderbilt’s last 11 games.
- Tennessee is 12-0 SU and 7-4-1 ATS in its last 12 games.
Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Game Center
Volunteers look to defend No. 1 ranking
For just the second time in school history, Tennessee sits atop the AP poll. Coincidentally, the last time the Vols were ranked No. 1, in February 2008, their next game was a road match at Vanderbilt, a contest they lost 72-69, and they are looking for a different result this time around. The Volunteers have dropped just one game this season, falling 87-81 in overtime to then-No. 2 Kansas in the NIT Season Tip-Off.
Tennessee scores 86.1 points per game for the No. 5 mark in the country and its road average is almost identical at 86.0. Don’t expect the Volunteers to pull up often from beyond the arc as they rank 304th with just 19.1 three-pointers attempted per game, but they are hitting 36.4 percent of those shots, ranking 79th.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Vols are giving up 68.2 ppg, which ranks 80th, but that figure does take a jump to 77.2 in their games away from home. Meanwhile, they restrict their foes to a shooting percentage of 39.4 which is the 17th-lowest percentage in the nation. Additionally, they commit the 51st-fewest turnovers per game at 11.8, but they still give up 59.9 shots per game, ranking 252nd.
Commodores aiming to keep heads above water
Vanderbilt’s season took a major left turn after losing 2018 McDonald’s All American Darius Garland for the year with a knee injury in its fifth game. Since then, the Commodores are 5-8 SU, including an ongoing five-game losing slide since conference play began. Additionally, over this current skid, they have had to tip off against two ranked teams in then-No. 18 Kentucky and then-No. 24 Mississippi State.
The offense has been fairly decent on the season for the Commodores as they average 76.6 points per game to rank 76th, though with Garland in the lineup they scored 83 ppg. They have just two players that are averaging double-digit points, led by another 2018 McDonald’s All American, Simisola Shittu, who is racking up 13.6 points and 7.6 rebounds per game.
A big reason for their lack of success is their defense, surrendering an average of 71 ppg to rate 141st. However, they do a good job pressuring the opposing shooter as they are limiting foes to a 41.4 shooting percentage (61st). That being said, they are averaging 37.1 points allowed from two-pointers per game, the 136th-most in college basketball.
Is the OVER the bet to make?
Tonight’s game features the fifth-best offense in the nation colliding with the 141st-ranked defense and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 149 points. Meanwhile, Tennessee has gone OVER in six of its last nine games with an average combined score of 157.33.
Conversely, though, Vanderbilt has gone UNDER in nine of its last 11 games with just three games either pushing or going OVER 149 points. I think that Tennessee is going to have its opportunity to pour in points from inside the arc, and if Vanderbilt can create a few turnovers, it should be able to carry its end of the deal and hit the OVER.
My take on Tennessee vs Vanderbilt
I like Tennessee to cover the 11-point spread. Of the Vols’ 16 wins this season, only three have been decided by fewer than 11 points, with a winning margin of 21.19. Meanwhile, during Vandy’s current five-game slide, it has lost two games by 11 or more points and has an average losing margin of 11.4.
Additionally, the Commodores give up the 136th-most points from two-pointers, while the Volunteers score the fourth-most points from inside the arc. Lastly, Tennessee has five different players averaging double-digit points per game and I think Vanderbilt will have a hard time containing them all. I expect a blowout.
