No. 6 Baylor open conference season by hosting a Texas program they’ve recently owned. Baylor has won seven of the last eight games, and covered the spread in eight of the last 12 meetings, and look like the better team this season — and a strong play on Saturday.
- Date/Time: January 4, 8:00 p.m. ET
- Stadium: Ferrell Center
- TV Coverage: ESPN2
- Sportsbook Odds: Bulls -9.5 | O/U 131.5
- Bears vs Longhorns Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
The Longhorns have won just two of their last 11 road games, while only winning one of their last eight SU and 4 of their last 12 ATS against Baylor. The sixth-seeded Bears have looked like a true power to start the season, with three wins over nationally-ranked teams, so they open conference play as 9.5-point home favorites. Both clubs rank as strong defensive teams, but with a recent history of the total going OVER when these clubs meet up, the total started at 131.5 points.
Texas News & Notes
The Longhorns enter Big 12 play with a 10-2 record, but have been somewhat unimpressive in doing so. They recently suffered a 22-point loss to Providence, have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games and did not receive any votes in the latest weekly AP ranking poll.
Texas takes pride in their defense, which is ranked 31st in the country in allowing 60.8 points per game, but a major program such as their ranking 265th in the nation in scoring is simply unacceptable.
They’ll need more from guards Matt Coleman III and Andrew Jones, especially Saturday at Baylor: Texas is 1-7 SU in their last eight against Baylor, and has won just two of their last 11 road games overall.
Baylor News & Notes
Behind a dangerous offense and one of the nation’s stingiest defenses, Baylor has jumped out to a 10-1 record entering conference season — including wins over No. 17 Villanova, No. 12 Arizona and No. 18 Butler.
The Bears have forced opponents to shoot just 38.1 percent from the floor, good for 22nd in the nation and they tend to win the turnover battle as they’re 26th in the country in turnover margin; they’ve forced at least 15 turnovers in nine of their 11 games this year, compared to accomplishing that feat just seven times all last season.
Recent history tells us that Saturday’s game may be more high-scoring than expected, as the total has gone OVER in 16 of Baylor’s last 20 games against a Big 12 opponent, while five of the last six matchups between Baylor and Texas have seen the total go OVER as well.
Betting Pick: Baylor -9.5
Baylor has big wins and strong metrics while Texas seems to be a bit underwhelming for a big-name program with a strong record. I think the sixth-seeded Bears prove their superiority on Saturday.
- Texas is 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games against Baylor.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas' last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baylor's last 8 games played on a Saturday.
