It’s an intriguing matchup as Villanova and Purdue hook up in the Round of 32 at the NCAA Tournament. Villanova is the No. 6 seed while Purdue is the No. 3 seed in the South bracket. Purdue opens as a 3.5-point favorite and that gets my attention as Villanova has shown an ability to win close games. The total opened at 137 points with two of the nation’s top 50 defenses squaring off.
Villanova vs Purdue Game Center
Standout Stats
- Villanova is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 4 points or less in the NCAA Tournament since 1999. The Wildcats are also 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in this spot in any game over the last three years.
- Purdue is 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS as a favorite of 4 to 10 points since February and is just 4-6 ATS as a favorite of any number during that span.
- Villanova is 8-0 SU on a neutral court this season vs Purdue at just 3-3 SU. The Wildcats have found a way to win in close games during this playoff run, winning their last three games by an average of 3.3 points. In its last four games, Purdue has lost two close games and won in two blowouts.
- Villanova had the second-worst field-goal percentage in the Big East at 43.9 percent. Purdue was in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten at 44.6 percent. Purdue shoots 36.4 percent from three-point land while Villanova is at 35.3 percent. These percentages are very close, with Purdue the slightly more efficient shooting team.
- Defensively, both teams are allowing 66 points and change in opponent scoring coming into today. Their three-point defenses are about the same while Purdue has a marginally better overall field-goal shooting defense. Like the offenses, the defenses are quite comparable.
- These teams both played Florida State within three days of each other in November. Villanova won 66-60 while Purdue lost 73-72. Again, close games against a mutual opponent, showing us that there’s not a lot between these teams.
My Best Bet for Villanova vs Purdue
Villanova +3.5
Villanova has a penchant for winning close games and the Wildcats have been in this situation before, having won the tournament last year. Not just in this game, but any time I see a game that is too close to call, I’m happy to back the underdog spread and take the points.
Given the Wildcats’ success ATS in this spot both this season and in the tournament historically, I think they’re the best play.
