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Could Villanova Be Undervalued - Again?

It’s a familiar story heading into Villanova’s clash with Kansas Saturday night: Another game and not a lot of love for Villanova. 

As I write this, our Odds Shark consensus numbers show 60 percent of bets are on Kansas -2 for tonight’s South regional final and there has been sporadic line movement of small amounts at most sports books.

For all four of Nova’s games in the tournament we’ve seen small movement on its lines or no movement despite the fact they won each of those games by at least 19 points. 

It’s not totally unexpected – I wrote before the tournament about how this Wildcats team and Virginia are two rather unpopular bets because of their defense-first nature and their lack of national TV time. I am a little surprised though with the lack of love for Villanova now that the Wildcats have kind of taken care of those two roadblocks. 

National TV time? Check. Winning with offense? Check.

In fact, few teams have ever won with offense the way Nova is right now in the tournament. The Wildcats are the first team to score 85 points or more in their first three games of the tournament since Connecticut did it in 1995. Their worst field goal shooting game was 57 percent and their worst 3-point performance was 46 percent this tourney. 

Ken Pomeroy has Villanova rated as the No. 2 efficiency offense and the team gives up just 63.8 points per game. 

Kansas, meanwhile, is the No. 9 rated efficiency offense in the country and the Jayhawks were co-favorites to win the tournament. They may also have the more talented lineup when you compare these two teams together man-for-man.  

So I guess I can’t be too shocked that it seems like there is more love for Kansas than Villanova here. But the numbers tell me it’s tough not to take a shot on them in this spot and that's where my money is Saturday night.