A clash of titans in the ACC has the undefeated No. 4 Virginia Cavaliers making their way to Cameron Indoor Stadium to collide with the No. 1 Duke Blue Devils. Virginia is just one of two teams in the nation that remains unbeaten this season, while Duke is coming off its second loss of the year on Monday. However, the Blue Devils are a 3-point favorite in tonight’s game with the total Sportsbook at 138 points.
- Duke scores the second-most points per game in the nation this season. (90.2)
- Virginia surrenders the fewest points per game in the nation this season. (51.2)
- Virginia is 16-0 SU and 13-3 ATS in its 16 games this season.
Cavaliers’ Defense continues to be a handful for opponents
Virginia and Michigan are the only teams left in the nation with a 0 at the end of their records. Both teams actually have some similarities with their stifling defenses, and the Cavaliers had that on full display on Tuesday when they hosted their in-state rivals Virginia Tech. The Cavs choked out the Hokies in the first half, holding them to just 22 points and cruised to an 81-59 triumph overall to push their record to 16-0.
The offense for Virginia this season, I feel, is a little underrated due to their fantastic defense. The Cavs average 74.2 points per game, ranking 138th in college basketball, however, they have a great ability to sort of flip a switch and really come alive offensively that you can’t really quantify. Additionally, they have broken the 80-point plateau in three of their last five games compared to topping that mark just twice in the previous 11 games. A fair bit of Virginia’s points come from beyond the arc as it averages 8.6 triples per game ranking in a tie for 83rd-most in college basketball.
Last season, the Cavaliers led the nation for the fewest points allowed per game at 54, this season, they have clamped down even harder limiting their opponents to just 51.7 ppg. Their in-your-face style of pressure defense has led teams to shoot just 37 percent from the floor which is the fourth-lowest percentage in college basketball, including hitting just 25.1 percent from downtown, the lowest percentage in the nation. Meanwhile, they restrict their foes to just 28.5 rebounds per game, again, the fewest in the NCAA, but Duke grabs the second-most boards per game.
Can Duke avoid a losing streak?
The upset of the season thus far came on Monday as unranked Syracuse entered Cameron Indoor Stadium as a 17-point underdog and walked out with a 95-91 overtime victory. That was Duke’s first home defeat since Jan. 27 of 2018, a span of 13 games, the last team to beat it at home, the Virginia Cavaliers. Additionally, the Blue Devils haven’t dropped back-to-back games in front of its home fans since Notre Dame and Syracuse did so in January 2016.
Only twice all season has Duke been limited to fewer than 80 points this year as its offense has just been punishing teams, averaging 90.2 points per game ranking second in the nation. What makes the Blue Devils’ offense so dangerous is their variety as they have a three-headed monster in R.J. Barrett, Zion Williamson and Cam Reddish that each possesses a different offensive skill set that is hard to shut down.
Williamson is a force down low with his rim-rattling dunks, conversely, Reddish does his damage from beyond the arc, shooting 35.8 percent from out there. Lastly, Barrett does a little bit of everything but is most effective with his mid-range jumper.
Similar to Virginia’s offense, I think Duke’s defense has been undervalued this season. Teams are scoring just 66.9 points per game vs the Blue Devils, ranking 57th in college hoops, and only six teams have scored more than 70 points on them this year. They are especially good when teams shoot from within the three-point line as they are restricting their opponents to shooting just 42 percent from two-point range and they lead the nation with 8.1 blocks per game. Gonzaga, which beat Duke, and Texas Tech each had good success with the backdoor pass in the paint for an easy layup as the Blue Devils sometimes over commit to a shooter.
Is an UNDER in store for tonight’s game?
We have a battle between the second-best offense in college hoops and the top-ranked defense and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 138 points. This is the highest total Virginia has had all season and it has only topped 138 points in just four games. Conversely, this is the lowest total Duke has had this year and has gone UNDER or pushed 138 points three times.
The Cavaliers went into Cameron Indoor Stadium last year and handed the Blue Devils a 65-63 loss for a combined score of 128 when the total was set at 134, Duke’s offense is better, but Virginia’s defense is also improved, I think the oddsmakers have nailed the total and I would lean toward the UNDER.
My take on Virginia vs Duke
This is a true battle of the best of the best in college hoops and I like Virginia +3. I can’t say that the Cavs are going to beat the Blue Devils tonight, but I think this is going to be such a great game that Virginia can keep it close. Duke hasn’t lost back-to-back home games in three years.
The Blue Devils were losing to Texas Tech with just over five minutes to go and the 69 points Duke scored in that game was its fewest all season and Virginia’s defense is better than Texas Tech's. The Cavs returned many of their key pieces from last year that earned a victory at Duke so they have the experience, I just think this game comes down to last shot wins.
