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Seminoles Can Move into Tie Atop ACC With Win vs Cavaliers

Virginia vs Florida State CBB Jan 15 2020

The ninth-ranked Florida State Seminoles (14-2) will try to move into a three-way tie for first place in the ACC on Wednesday and remain the conference’s lone unbeaten home team when they host the defending national champion Virginia Cavaliers (11-4).

The Seminoles are a perfect 8-0 straight up at home but 4-4 against the spread to go along with a 4-1 SU mark in ACC play compared to 3-2 for the Cavaliers, who are 1-2 ATS in three true road games.

Virginia Cavaliers vs Florida State Seminoles

Opening Odds Analysis

The point spread has stayed at -6.5 in favor of Florida State while the total has dropped at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark from 115 to as low as 113 as of Tuesday night.

Based on that early line movement on the total, bettors should expect the number to continue to fall, as Virginia will again be looking to dictate a slower pace in order to stay competitive in this one.

Virginia News & Notes

The Cavaliers are obviously not the same team that cut down the nets last April, losing NBA talent that helped them beat the best teams in the country and avoid upset losses to inferior opponents like Boston College and Syracuse. Virginia’s current two-game skid includes losses to both the Eagles and Orange as a solid favorite each time.

The key statistic for this team is again the opposition’s points per game, with each of the four losses coming when giving up 60 points or more. In fact, the Cavaliers are a perfect 11-0 when allowing 56 points or less, with the UNDER going 9-2 in those games compared to 0-4 in the losses.  

Florida State News & Notes

This is a huge matchup for Florida State to make a statement as arguably the best team in the conference, and hitting the 60-point plateau will be extremely important. As mentioned earlier, Virginia has not won a game this season when surrendering 60 points or more.

That is also the case in this series lately, with the last three wins for the Seminoles all coming when they have scored at least 60. They are 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS in the past 10 meetings, averaging only 51.3 points in the seven losses during that stretch dating back to 2014, according to the Odds Shark college basketball database.

Florida State also scored 66 points in a 12-point loss at Virginia on January 18, 2014, one of just two OVERs in the previous 12.

Betting Pick: OVER 113

As it stands now, this is the lowest total (113) in 25 meetings going all the way back to 2005. Last year, the fourth-seeded Seminoles upset the top-seeded Cavaliers 69-59 in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament as 8.5-point underdogs by pushing the pace in the other OVER game among the last 12 head-to-head matchups. Look for them to do the same thing here in an effort to put together back-to-back wins in this series for the first time since 2016.

Shark Bites
  • Virginia is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games.
  • The OVER has hit in 6 of Florida State’s 8 home games.
  • The UNDER is 20-4 in the past 24 games in this matchup.