The 15th-ranked Houston Cougars (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) will try to stay undefeated and win for the 14th time in 15 games on Tuesday when they host the ACC’s Virginia Cavaliers (1-1, 1-1). While the Cougars have been winning with regularity, they have failed to cover the spread in six of their past 11 dating back to March.
- Date/Time: November 16, 8 p.m. ET
- Arena: Fertitta Center
- TV Coverage: ESPN
- Sportsbook Odds: Houston -8.5 | O/U 124 (Line History)
- Virginia vs Houston Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
As of Monday, the point spread had dropped slightly down to -7.5 in favor of a Houston team coming off a 79-46 rout of the Rice Owls behind 26 points and five assists from junior guard Marcus Sasser.
The Cougars covered the spread easily as 13.5-point home favorites, with Sasser playing just 28 minutes after logging 41 in an 83-75 overtime victory against the Hofstra Pride in their season opener. Houston was a 19-point home favorite in the win over Hofstra but trailed 37-31 at halftime before rallying back to force OT and eventually pull away.
Meanwhile, the Cavaliers bounced back from a shocking 66-58 loss to the Navy Midshipmen as 15.5-point home favorites in their opener a week ago, blowing out the Radford Highlanders 73-52 and covering Friday as 17.5-point chalk.
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Virginia News & Notes
Virginia was ranked No. 25 in the country before getting upset by Navy, and now the team begins the mission of proving itself vs better competition. The Cavaliers were up 41-21 on the Highlanders at halftime and were never really threatened after the intermission, with their smallest lead in the final 20 minutes being 18 points.
This will be a great test for Virginia on the road before playing four of the next five at home and another at a neutral site. Against Radford, junior guard Armaan Franklin scored a game-high 21 points while senior forward Jayden Gardner added 18 along with a team-high seven rebounds. Gardner’s ability to clean the glass could be the key here considering he is just six-foot-six.
Houston News & Notes
Houston continues to be a guard-driven team with Sasser, Kyler Edwards and Taze Moore combining for 46 of the team’s 79 points vs Rice. Forward J’Wan Roberts has totaled 24 rebounds in 47 minutes off the bench over the first two games, and the 6-7 sophomore will likely match up with Gardner throughout and spell 6-8 senior Fabian White Jr.
The Cougars do have some size up front to start between White and 6-8 senior Reggie Chaney, but they depend on their reserves as well, including 6-11 senior center Josh Carlton. Depth-wise, they should have edges inside and out in this matchup.
How Virginia Will Cover
The Cavaliers do not want to get into a shootout and would be smart to slow the tempo and limit possessions. Houston has failed to cover four of its last six, with the UNDER going 4-2 during that stretch. The best way for Virginia to cover is in a low-scoring game.
How Houston Will Cover
The Cougars have won 20 straight home games, going 14-6 ATS and covering nine of their last 11 there. They would much rather run and gun in this spot, and the OVER has gone 4-1 in their last five covers at the Fertitta Center and 7-3 in their last 10 there overall.
Computer Pick: Virginia +7.5
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Buy Sports Picks Now- Virginia is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games.
- The UNDER is 4-2 in Houston’s last 6 games.
- The OVER is 4-1 in Virginia’s last 5 games.
