Yes, everyone loves to beat up on the Pac-12 so who am I to buck the trend? Washington was the No. 1-ranked team in last weekend’s Pac-12 tournament but was bounced by 20 points by No. 6 Oregon. The Huskies are in for their toughest game of the year against the potential NCAA champions from UNC. The Tar Heels are laying 11.5 points with the total set at 147.5.
Standout Stats
- Washington played just one ACC team this year, Virginia Tech, and lost 73-61 as a 7-point underdog on a neutral court. In their only Pac-12 game, UNC beat Stanford 90-72 in Chapel Hill as an 18-point favorite.
- The Huskies have the No. 25 scoring defense in the country at 64.3 points per game. Against similar scoring defenses, UNC scored 103 points vs the No. 9 Virginia Tech scoring defense, 81 vs No. 21 Clemson, 103 vs No. 27 Gonzaga and 93 vs No. 41 Syracuse.
- North Carolina scores points on 51.6 percent of its possessions, giving it the No. 15 floor percentage in the country. Washington is No. 164 in this category at 47.5 percent but is just 43.6 percent in its last three games. As the competition has risen, Washington’s numbers are coming back to earth.
- Since 1997, UNC is 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS as a favorite of 10 points or more in the Round of 32, all as a No. 1 seed. The Tar Heels do not have a spread loss to a No. 9 seed during that stretch, going 5-0 ATS. Notably, UNC scored more than 79.5 points in six of those eight games. That’s the Sportsbook team total for Sunday.
- The Huskies have not been a double-digit underdog in the second round of the tournament as far back as our database goes (mid-1990s). Washington was 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS in this spot this year, losing 88-66 to Auburn as a 10-point dog in November and losing 81-79 to Gonzaga as a 15.5-point dog in December.
- UNC is averaging 95.7 points per game in out-of-conference wins this year. Washington allowed 77.5 points per game in its four non-conference losses.
My Best Bet for Washington vs UNC
North Carolina OVER 79.5 points
UNC has shown explosiveness in its offense in the best conference in the country, the ACC, and I have no doubt that will continue vs a team from the Pac-12. As outlined above, UNC has eclipsed the 79.5 plateau vs similar scoring defenses this season.
Additionally, UNC’s last three games vs the Pac-12 have gone OVER the total and the Tar Heels have scored an average of 83.6 points in their last 10 games, including three games vs a strong defensive team in the Duke Blue Devils.
