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Was The Opening Total Too High For WVU At Baylor?

Baylor Bears West Virginia Mountaineers Betting Preview

Defense is the name of the game Saturday, as West Virginia’s 175th-ranked offense and 15th-ranked defense faces Baylor’s 184th-ranked offense and fourth-ranked defense. The total opened at 130 points — meaning the UNDER should be on your betting radar.

West Virginia Mountaineers vs Baylor Bears

Opening Odds Analysis

Baylor is 11-0 at home this season, but haven’t been winning convincingly (they’re just 5-6 ATS) and they’ve struggled recently against West Virginia, which is why the No. 1-ranked Bears opened as just six-point home favorites. The total opened at 130 points, which seems high considering this game features two of the top 15 defenses in the country… and two offenses which severely struggle to score at times.

West Virginia News & Notes

The Mountaineers had a tune-up for Saturday’s game at No. 1 Baylor by hosting third-ranked Kansas on Wednesday. Hopefully, for West Virginia’s sake, it wasn’t an indication of things to come; as they shot just 31.7 percent and scored a season-low 49 points in a 58-49 defeat.

It was WVU’s second straight loss and the fifth time in the last six games that a Mountaineers game has seen the total go UNDER. Currently sporting the 175th-ranked offense in the country, they struggled mightily against Kansas’ 7th-ranked scoring defense… and it gets even tougher against Baylor, which allows the fourth-fewest points in the nation.

West Virginia has done well recently against Baylor, going 6-3 SU and ATS in their last nine matchups. But what’s even more likely, with Baylor’s defense and WVU sitting 15th themselves defensively, is a continuation of the trend of the total going UNDER in four of the Mountaineers’ last six visits to Waco.

Baylor News & Notes

After dispatching Texas in a 52-45 road win on Monday, the top-ranked team in the country notched their 21st consecutive victory on the season. They’ve also covered the spread in nine of their last 12 games, a testament to how they’ve lived up to their No. 1 ranking this season.

Baylor has gone 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS against ranked opponents and are 11-0 SU at home this season, but they are just 5-6 ATS at the Ferrell Center… and have struggled recently in head-to-head matchups with West Virginia covering the spread in three of their last nine games.

Like the Mountaineers, Baylor also possesses an elite defense and a weaker offense — they are just sixth in the Big 12, and 184th overall, in scoring this season. It’s no surprise then that the total has gone UNDER in eight of the Bears’ last 12 games.

Betting Pick: UNDER +130

Two elite defenses, two so-so offenses and the total has gone UNDER in four of their last six matchups at Baylor. I’ll take my chances with another low-scoring game.

Shark Bites
  • Baylor is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on a Saturday.
  • West Virginia is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of Baylor's last 13 games against West Virginia.