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Trends Favor Florida over upset-minded Wisconsin

The Florida Gators have an unlikely dance partner for the Sweet 16, as they take on the eighth-seeded Wisconsin Badgers who are fresh off an improbable upset over the tournament’s top seed, Villanova. The Gators opened as a 1.5-point favorite, which has been a favorable spot for them and their backers. As a favorite of three points or less, they’ve won and covered the spread in eight consecutive games.  

Shark Bites
  • Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last five games after an ATS win.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of Florida's last 10 games against Big Ten teams.
  • Wisconsin is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games against the SEC.

Despite its 65-62 win over Villanova in the Round of 32, Wisconsin has been unreliable as an underdog, posting a 1-4 SU and ATS record in its last five games when getting points. The Badgers bring a well-rounded attack into the game that’s seen four players score in double digits in each of its two games in the tournament so far.

Florida’s tournament play so far is highlighted by holding Virginia to an atrocious 39 points in the Round of 32 that is easily the lowest scoring output of any team in March Madness so far. For Wisconsin to continue its unlikely run, the Badgers will have to limit the production of Devin Robinson, who’s led the way on offense for the Gators, totaling 38 points in the tournament so far.

With the total opening at 131 points, bettors should keep in mind that both teams have been profitable UNDER wagers this season, combining to go UNDER in 68.5% of their games, which includes three of their four tournament games so far.

Wisconsin Badgers vs Florida Gators Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

Florida Gators battles the Wisconsin Badgers, currently sitting with a 27-9 mark (17-16 ATS). The OVER/UNDER records, always important for totals betting, are 14-19 for the Florida Gators and 13-18-2 for the Wisconsin Badgers.

The Gators - Badgers odds would favor the Gators if the lines were set according to our power ranks. Florida is rated No. 19 in the current Odds Shark poll, while Wisconsin is at No. 108.

Statistical Matchup

Rating these schools in several key categories is important for handicappers and Florida has the nation's No. 59-rated offensive output, at 77.94 PPG. The visiting Wisconsin Badgers defense ranks No. 11 allowing on average 61.78 PPG. The Gators FG% has averaged 45.09% so far, less than the Florida Badgers marksmen have achieved on the year, 45.31% per game.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

The Badgers got 19 points from Nigel Hayes as Wisconsin ran past Villanova 65-62 on Saturday at Keybank Center.

Florida cruised to victory on Saturday, running Virginia out of the gym and running up a 65-39 score at Amway Center.