A winning streak will come to an end as the Xavier Musketeers have won their last two games, while the No. 22 Villanova Wildcats are on a five-game winning streak and they tip off at the Wells Fargo Center tonight. Villanova has won each of the last four meetings with Xavier and hasn’t had a home loss to the Musketeers since 2006. The Wildcats are 10-point favorites for tonight’s game with the total Sportsbook at 139 points.
- Xavier is 0-5 SU and ATS in its last five games on the road vs Villanova.
- Villanova averages the ninth-most three-pointers per game in the nation this season (10.2).
- The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Xavier’s last 20 road games.
Xavier vs Villanova Game Center
Wildcats relying on three-point shooting for points
Villanova seems to have hit its stride after back-to-back losses to Penn and then-No. 1 Kansas in mid-December and has now rattled off five straight wins, including four in a row in the Big East. Those consecutive losses in mid-December marked the second time this year that the Wildcats were on the wrong end of back-to-back games after they fell to then-No. 18 Michigan and Furman in mid-November.
Much like last season, the Wildcats’ offense consistently comes from beyond the arc as they average 10.2 treys per game, the ninth-highest number in the nation, and 40.5 percent of their total points come from long range. They have seven players who have 10 or more total threes this season, led by senior guard Phil Booth, who has sunk 48 shots from deep and chips in 18.2 points per game.
Meanwhile, Villanova’s defense is a little underrated, giving up an average of 66.7 points per game to rate 52nd in the nation, but its foes are hitting 43.6 percent of their attempts, which ranks 143rd. The Wildcats are able to restrict scoring by having good ball possession, averaging just 12.3 turnovers per game, 83rd-fewest in college basketball, and their opponents are getting just 55.3 shot attempts per game.
Musketeers struggling on the road this season
Xavier has struggled to find much consistency this season, getting some momentum with a couple of wins in a row, only to be followed immediately by a few consecutive losses. Recently, the Musketeers dropped back-to-back games vs Seton Hall and at then-No. 16 Marquette, but they enter tonight’s game on a two-game winning streak after triumphs over Georgetown and Butler, both wins at home. They are just 1-3 SU and ATS on the road this season, averaging just 66.4 points per game.
The offense has been rather pedestrian, averaging 73.8 points per game to rank 148th, compared to the 84.4 ppg they racked up last season. Unlike Villanova, Xavier has difficulties shooting the three ball, hitting just 31.7 percent of its attempts for the 80th-worst shooting percentage from beyond the arc. They attempt just 56.1 shots per game, the 98th-fewest.
With the offense not clicking at a high rate, the defense has to step up and it hasn’t. The Musketeers are allowing 70.8 points per game, ranking 138th in the nation, with their opponents hitting 43.2 percent of their attempts. Most concerning for tonight’s game is their lack of ability to stop the three-pointer as opponents are shooting 35.8 percent from long range, which is the 103rd-highest percentage in the NCAA.
Is the OVER the bet to make?
Sportsbook has tonight’s total Sportsbook at 139 points and that is one of the lowest totals for both teams this season. Both Xavier and Villanova have had just two games with a total lower than 139, although all four of those games went UNDER. Six of Villanova’s last seven games have either pushed or gone OVER 139 points, while four of Xavier’s last five games have either pushed or gone OVER.
The big question mark I think for hitting the OVER is if the Musketeers can carry their weight as I believe the Wildcats are going to be able to execute their game plan with frequent three-pointers, but the OVER is definitely achievable.
My take on Xavier vs Villanova
I like Villanova to cover the 10-point spread. You have to go back to 2006 to find the last Xavier road victory over Villanova. Since then, the Wildcats have won six home games over Xavier by an average winning margin of 22.17. Additionally, the Wildcats have won each of the last four meetings with the Musketeers overall by double-digit margins.
Villanova averages 10.2 three-pointers per game to rank ninth in college basketball and Xavier’s opponents are shooting 35.8 percent from beyond the arc, so the Wildcats should have good clean looks. Lastly, four of Villanova’s six home victories this season have come by double digits.
