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ACC Coastal Division Season Win Total Picks For 2018

The ACC Coastal division probably won’t be as strong as the Atlantic side but there are some OVER/UNDER season win plays I really like on this half of the conference. 

My betting analysis and picks are below. You can also check my Atlantic division preview and season O/U picks here. And don’t forget to listen to the podcast this week on iTunes where @WillBrinson joins me to talk ACC win totals for every team. 

Hit me up on Twitter @JonnyOddsShark for your thoughts on these... 

Miami 8.5 (over -170) 

QB play was the sore spot for the Hurricanes last season and don’t be shocked if Malik Rosier loses the starting job in 2018. The good news is Miami ranked third in the nation in turnovers gained and fourth in tackles for a loss in the nation in 2017, which is how they won the Coastal.  

They return seven starters from that unit (including all three linebackers). The UNDER is 9-17 in two seasons under Mark Richt while the ’Canes went just 5-8 against the spread last year. Not sure if they get seven or eight wins so the plus-money price on the UNDER might be worth a go. 

Pick: UNDER 

Virginia Tech 7.5 (over -165) 

The Hokies had their typical staunch defense last season with the No. 2 scoring D (14.3 ppg) in the conference and the seventh-best red-zone D in the nation. They only return five starters there, though, which is a big reason for this modest win total.

I expect offensive improvements with Josh Jackson, now a sophomore, with a year of starting under his belt. There could be some game-to-game OVER value with this team after a 3-9 O/U in 2017 and a penchant for seeing low totals from oddsmakers. 

Pick: OVER 

Georgia Tech 5.5 

The Bumble Bees tend to be a sweet UNDER bet in conference home games (7-13 O/U the last five seasons) and a moneymaking OVER bet in conference roadies (13-6 O/U last five seasons). Keep that in mind with only one scary ACC away game (at Va Tech Oct. 25).

Georgia Tech returns a ton of experience on the O-line, which is the most important factor in Paul Johnson’s triple option offense. If new DC Nate Woody can improve this defense, the Jackets could be a good bet again this year. They went 7-3-1 ATS last season and are 58-51-4 ATS under Johnson. 

Pick: OVER 

Pittsburgh 5.5 

Pitt was the top UNDER team in the conference at 2-9-1 O/U last season thanks to an offense stuck in quicksand. They’re hoping that changes this year with dual-threat QB Kenny Pickett taking over. The O-line is a big question mark, though, and only four starters return on offense.

I love that the defense has three returning starters and upperclassmen at middle linebacker but I really have more questions than answers with this team. They are a better bet on the road (17-10 ATS) vs at home (12-20-1) over the past five seasons, so keep an eye for that. 

Pick: UNDER   

Duke 5.5 

David Cutcliffe has been one of the best coaches to bet in the ACC in his 10 years at Duke at 62-48-4 ATS. And Duke fancies me again as a team I wouldn’t really want to bet against.

The Blue Devils return five from a front six that helped them hold teams to just 20.2 ppg last year, which ranked third in the ACC and 21st in the nation. So I like that a lot. I also like the improvement of Daniel Jones at QB late last year which helped Duke cover its last three games. Jones has four returning senior starters to throw to in 2018 at WR and TE. 

Pick: OVER

North Carolina 5.5 

Betting on UNC is so hard for me to stomach because they are consistently soft up front on defense. They have finished last in the ACC against the run in each of the last five years and that makes for nailbiting wagers.

Somehow, though, Larry Fedora is 61-51 ATS at North Carolina so I dunno. The Heels were the most injured team in college last season so it’s almost like they start brand new this year. There’s a new OC, Shawn Watson, also. 

Pick: UNDER … I guess?  

Virginia 5.5 (Under -150)

The ’Hoos are rebuilding both lines this season, which isn’t good for a team that looked like it never loved smash-mouthing its way through the ACC. They were the worst rushing team in the conference last season (93.5 ypg) and second-worst at stopping the run (193.3 ypg).

UVa also comes into 2018 with some of the worst momentum after finishing 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS. If you’re looking for something to grab onto with Virginia, though, former Arizona State QB Bryce Perkins should fit the Bronco Mendenhall offense better than pass-only Kurt Benkert did.